559
FXUS64 KMAF 071913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

It`s a hot one out there today! Temperatures are near the 100
degree mark across much of the area outside of the higher terrain
and the far northeast Permian Basin. We are not seeing near as
much Cu development across the mountains as drier air has made its
way into the region. Still expect at least isolated convection in
the typical areas of the Davis Mountains this afternoon.
Attention turns to the north toward an outflow boundary leftover
from morning convection across OK. Storms could fire along this
boundary this evening mainly across the northern Permian Basin.

After a mild night, a cool down is in store for Monday. Another
thunderstorm complex is forecast to develop across the TX PH
tonight before moving south. These storms will help push a cold
front into the area during the day Monday. Timing is still a bit
uncertain as it will depend on how storms evolve to our north.
Past experience says the front will be here earlier than most
models indicate so have kept high temperatures lower than NBM
guidance. With the earlier frontal passage, much of the Permian
Basin could miss out on rain other than some showers in the
morning with the outflow/front. The best chance of rain will
likely shift to locations along and west of the Pecos River by
afternoon. The chance of rain will diminish through the night with
lows dropping below normal mainly into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Both convection allowing and global models indicate an MCS will
be ongoing over southeastern portions of the area Tuesday morning
before it moves southeast into west-central TX. A few tenths of an
inch to up to a half of an inch may fall over the southeast
Permian Basin into the eastern Stockton Plateau depending on
whether this MCS materializes, its speed, and what path it takes.
Decreased PoPs over most of southwest and southern portions of our
area west of lower Trans Pecos to reflect decreased precip
changes in subsiding motion surrounding the MCS. Behind the cold
front that washes out over N MX on Tuesday, highs will be below
normal for early to mid July, although we are expecting warmer
temperatures over northern areas than in previous runs. Lingering
showers and storms are likely in the cooler and more humid air
behind the front, but amounts in these lingering showers and
storms are forecast to stay relatively small and only a few tenths
of an inch at most. Highs in the 90s, 80s in northern Lea County
and Permian Basin, Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans
Pecos with triple digits confined to along the Rio Grande can be
expected. We might also see highs only rising into the 80s in
areas the MCS passed where evaporative cooling of still wet soils
limits daytime heating of the ground. If motion of the cold front
Monday night is faster than currently forecast, this may stabilize
conditions enough that no MCS forms and there are greater shower
and storm chances in the morning west of lower Trans Pecos as well
as highs rising into the 90s over the southeastern Permian Basin
and eastern Stockton Plateau. Tuesday night, we can expect lows
falling into the 60s aside from 70s along the Pecos River, in
lower elevations of western Culberson County, and near the Rio
Grande.

A warming trend sets in after Tuesday as pattern of a bifurcated
ridge over the western and eastern CONUS and longwave trough over
central CONUS begins to fade, as ridging expands northeast from
the west, thicknesses increase as the ridge slides closer, and
strongest flow aloft is pushed north to the US-Canada border.
Highs in the 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digits
confined to the Rio Grande will be present Wednesday into Friday
before triple digit highs are again reached over northeast Permian
Basin and along the Pecos River near Reeves County plains and
western Permian Basin for Saturday and Sunday. However, highs will
still be near normal for this time of year and not as high as
last week. Lows will also warm each night, with lows only falling
into the 70s over most of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin by
Thursday and Friday nights, and lows in the 70s and above for all
but northern Lea County, Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into lower
Trans Pecos for Saturday and Sunday nights. A pattern of isolated
to scattered storms in the Davis Mountains each afternoon due to
daytime heating of elevated terrain resumes by Tuesday afternoon.
Main risk with storms after Tuesday will be lightning and gusty,
erratic winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR will prevail through the period. Will need to monitor for TS
to our north near LUB later this afternoon as they could travel
into the area. Otherwise, a front is expected by the end of the
TAF period with winds turning more easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  89  69  92 /  10  30  30  20
Carlsbad                 72  87  68  90 /   0  40  40  30
Dryden                   75  99  74  94 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            75  97  70  91 /   0  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass           68  84  62  84 /   0  30  40  40
Hobbs                    68  83  64  89 /  10  40  30  20
Marfa                    64  94  62  89 /  10  50  40  60
Midland Intl Airport     72  89  69  90 /  10  30  30  30
Odessa                   73  89  69  90 /  10  30  30  20
Wink                     76  94  71  94 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29