331
FXUS64 KMAF 201749
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has developed a little farther west
over the past 24 hours, and is centered over western Arizona this
morning.  To the east, the MS Valley trough is being reinforced by a
secondary trough digging south through Minnesota.  KMAF VWP shows a
weak LLJ of 20-25 kts has developed this morning.  This is pretty
weak as far as LLJ`s go, but stronger than 24 hours ago.  As such,
and with a bit of high cloud, overnight minimums should come in
~ 4-6 F above normal.

Despite the trough shifting west, thicknesses are still set to
increase slightly this afternoon, adding 2-3 F to yesterday`s highs,
which came in right around normal.  For those who like warmer
weather, enjoy today, for today should be the warmest day this
forecast.  To the north, a boundary lies SW-NE across the area, as
seen on area radars and IR imagery.  North of that, a complex of
convection is ongoing over the panhandles. Outflows from this will
push the boundary into the CWA this afternoon, serving as a focus
for convection through tonight.  Dry subcloud layers suggest a wind
threat will be possible.

CAMs keep this convection going into the overnight hours, augmented
by a LLJ.  `Hard to tell the strength of the LLJ, as convection is
contaminating the wind fields.  Overnight lows look very similar to
this morning`s, if not a degree or so cooler.

Sunday, the MS Valley trough digs into the area, pushing a cold
front into the area during the late afternoon.  This will augment
residual boundaries already in the area, increasing chances of
convection, especially along and north of I-20.  Latest NAM
soundings increase PWATs at KMAF to a whopping 2.04" by 23Z
Sunday...considerably higher than the daily climatological max of
1.76" and mean of 1.17".  This is not likely to be attained, as it
would be the 3rd highest PWAT ever recorded at KMAF.  Even so, the
potential for decent rainfall is possible.  Nevertheless,
considering the synoptic pattern, we`re reluctant to mention heavy
rainfall attm, as much will depend on where specific boundaries end
up.  For those who like cooler weather, highs Sunday should top out
5-7 F below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Little change to the long term forecast with this package. The Four
Corners ridge begins to weaken and retreat westward allowing for
troughing to take its place over the Southern Plains. Broad lift,
PWATs increasing to between 1.5-2", and the passage of weak fronts
combine to increase rain chances areawide Sunday night and into
Monday. Chances begin to diminish on Tuesday as upper level
troughing begins to move eastward. As it stands, rain amounts will
be higher over the eastern portions of the CWA and decrease somewhat
further to the west with under a half inch expected for many areas
west of the Pecos River for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. To the
east, amounts could top an inch in some spots. Any thunderstorms
that develop do not currently pose a threat to become severe, but
heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will accompany some of this
activity. While the possibility of rain remains through the end of
the coming week, it becomes much more isolated in nature without
better upper level support available.

Highs drop into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday as clouds, rain, and
the upper level trough settle over the area. Lows dip into the 60s
for most with 50s possible for the highest elevation spots.
Temperatures begin to rebound slightly as the upper level trough
moves to the east after Tuesday. With the ridge axis staying farther
to the west, highs reach back into the 90s, but look to stay just
below normal.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

There isn`t much on radar right now, but models are showing TS
developing in the Permian Basin around 21-22Z. Any site could be
affected but MAF has the highest chance and VCTS has been added
there. TS will be in the local area of all TAFs affecting general
aviation ops in particular. Storms dissipate after 00Z but more
may form tomorrow.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  72  90  69 /  40  30  60  60
Carlsbad                 97  72  86  67 /  30  40  70  80
Dryden                   99  75  97  73 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton            98  73  93  70 /  10  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass           88  67  80  62 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                    94  69  85  65 /  20  50  70  80
Marfa                    92  65  88  64 /  20  10  50  40
Midland Intl Airport     97  72  89  69 /  30  30  60  60
Odessa                   97  73  88  70 /  30  30  60  60
Wink                     99  73  90  70 /  20  20  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10