144
FXUS64 KMAF 041652
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The winds of change are upon us for our Independence day
forecast. While temperatures are once again going to be hot this
afternoon as widespread upper 90s and low 100s continue, it will
be a touch cooler than yesterday. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are again on tap for portions of the area as a weak
disturbance slides on by to our north within the weakness in the
ridge. This corridor is expected to be a touch further east than
yesterday extending from the western Permian Basin down towards
the Presidio Valley, very near a weak boundary set up by
yesterday`s convection. These thunderstorms may produce quick
downpours and mother nature`s fireworks before winding down after
sunset this evening. Rainfall amounts can be expected to be mostly
light with high cloud bases and relatively low near-surface
relative humidity. Late this evening and tonight a cold front
enters the picture, beginning the cooler pattern for the area.
This cold front sags south with the aid of a trough across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley and the weakness between the
Southeast and Southwest ridges. This front doesn`t help with
overnight temperatures which should remain well into the 70s. Much
of the area can expect refreshing temperatures in the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the only exception to the heat confined to the
Rio Grande Friday afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are once again possible, mainly near the cold front across the
southern Permian Basin and across the Davis to Glass Mountain
regions. Once again this activity will slowly weaken and dissipate
after sunset. Thankfully, more of this refreshing weather is to
continue into part of the long term period.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

We`ve got quite the unsettled week ahead as upper ridging shifts
west and a large trough envelops the Plains. Weak NW flow aloft and
moist easterly flow at the surface could lead to multiple rounds of
storms Saturday through Monday. It`s too early to know the timing
and coverage of these storms as it will be highly dependent on what
occurs the previous day. Temperatures will remain near to below
normal Saturday before rising back into the upper 90s and low 100s
Sunday. If we receive widespread rainfall Friday or Saturday,
forecast highs on Sunday may need to be lowered.

Another cold front is forecast to approach the region Monday as the
upper trough remains over the Plains. This front could bring another
round of storms, but most notably will help lower temperatures
back to normal. Our attention will also be on Hurricane Beryl
which is forecast to make landfall in N. Mexico or S. Texas late
Sunday or early Monday. It`s still too early to know if we will
see any rain from this storm, but we will continue to see
temperatures near or below normal due to the deep easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. A cold front will
approach the area overnight, backing surface winds at northern
terminals, and arrive Friday. Some models try to bring MVFR cigs
into KHOB w/the front, but there`s too much uncertainty to commit
to that attm. Surface winds will increase ahead of and behind the
front Friday. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
this afternoon, w/bases 4.5-7 kft AGL, and another near the end of
the forecast period, w/bases 4.5-5 kft AGL. Convection will be
possible all terminals, especially KPEQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  91  71  95 /  20  40  30  30
Carlsbad                 74  92  70  95 /  30  50  40  30
Dryden                   76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            75  98  74  96 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass           70  85  66  88 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                    70  88  67  93 /  40  40  40  20
Marfa                    66  92  65  90 /  50  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport     75  91  72  93 /  30  30  30  30
Odessa                   75  92  73  93 /  40  30  30  30
Wink                     77  96  75  97 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44