Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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625 FXUS64 KMAF 020646 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 146 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Change is slowly coming into the picture for the short-term forecast. The persistent mid-level ridge across the southern CONUS begins to weaken slightly over the southern Great Plains as the center moves eastward slightly. Unfortunately, this slight shift of the ridge increases temperatures a few degrees across the area. Most locations can expected near 100 degrees for afternoon high temperatures. While temperatures may be hotter, rain chances begin to increase as more southwesterly mid-level flow and weakening large scale subsidence overspread our region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely across the western higher elevations and adjacent plains this afternoon and evening. Things slowly weaken and dissipate overnight. The ever present nocturnal low-level jet keeps temperatures warm, mainly in the 70s for morning low temperatures. Wednesday will be nearly a carbon copy of this afternoon with temperatures within a degree or two of today. The main difference will be that rain chances expand ever so slightly further east into western portions of the Permian Basin. Even more change arrives as we move into the long-term period. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 We begin the extended with the 4th of July and it will be a hot one. Even though upper ridging will begin to break down, we will have one more day where most of the region will see 100 degree temperatures. We will need to monitor for another day of possible Heat Advisories across the Big Bend and Davis Mountains. With the ridge weakening, subsidence that will keep most of the area dry this week will be all but gone by Thursday. With daytime heating, at least scattered showers and storms will form across the higher terrain by afternoon. Outflow could fire more storms further north across SE NM and the Permian Basin later in the evening so if you have plans outside at the pool or watching fireworks, you`ll want to keep checking the forecast. A trough moving across the N. Plains will also send a cold front south with storms likely firing along this boundary Thursday night in the TX PH. Developing northwesterly flow aloft will likely send these storms south. As an intense upper ridge builds in the West, this flow regime will linger into the weekend with unsettled conditions across much of the area. While it will not rain everyday everywhere, storms will be possible at almost any point Friday into next week. Another front could be a focus for more widespread storms Sunday. It is still to early to know whether we will see any flooding with much of region outside of the higher terrain not having seen rain for at least 3 weeks. After the hot period we have seen as of late, temperatures will trend downward Friday into the weekend. We could even see below normal temperatures if rain and clouds are widespread enough. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions continue through the period. Southeast winds remain elevated and gusty this evening before weakening slightly early this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 103 77 101 77 / 20 20 40 20 Dryden 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 75 103 75 / 10 0 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 94 73 93 73 / 20 30 50 30 Hobbs 101 74 101 74 / 20 20 20 20 Marfa 97 66 97 67 / 20 20 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 101 77 101 77 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 106 78 105 79 / 10 10 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...91