Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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298 FXUS64 KMAF 021945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The mid-level ridge over the southern CONUS will weaken over the Southern Great Plains and slide eastward. This will result in warmer tmperatures today, with most places warmer than yesterday and seeing triple digits aside from higher elevations, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early July. However, rain chances also increase today as increasing southwesterly southwesterly mid-level flow and weakening large-scale subsidence overspread the region as the ridge moves east. VIS SAT shows high clouds streaming in from the southwest early this afternoon, with denser clouds present over northern Eddy and Lea Counties. We can continue expect a mix of sun and high clouds outside of showers and storms as this upper level moisture continues to move in. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are likely over western higher elevations and adjacent plains this afternoon into early tonight. With loss of daytime heating, storms should weaken, but the nocturnal low-level jet will maintain gusty south-southeast winds over much of the area into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight fall into the 70s and above aside from higher elevations and parts of Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday will be similar to today in terms of temperatures, but with rain chances developing farther east into the Permian Basin. Wednesday night will again feature above normal temperatures with decreasing rain chances with loss of daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Thursday, the upper ridge will be bisected, w/one half centered off the west coast near the Bay Area, and the other half over the Gulf Coast states, leaving Texas under a col of sorts. Under this scenario, a downward trend in thicknesses/temperatures continues. However, Thursday will be the warmest day in the extended, as highs come in ~ 6-8 F above normal. The break in the ridge will allow convection to develop north across the border during the afternoon and overnight, combining with upslope flow for excellent chances over the Davis Mountains and areas north and south. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be digging towards the Great Lakes area, and is forecast to drop a cold front into the area Thursday night and Friday. At 12Z Friday, the NAM places the front just north of the CWA, and fropa at KMAF at around noon. Ahead of this feature, 60+F surface dewpoints are forecast beyond our western border, and PWATs Thursday night at KMAF increase to 1.62" on the NAM...above the daily max of 1.52" and mean of 0.95" and around 2.5 std devs above normal. Despite the juicy parameters, models are rather stingy on QPF, but we`ll take what we can get, as always. Thicknesses plunge w/the arrival of the front, and cloud cover/precipitation will result in highs below normal for much of the area. Best chances for rain look to be later Friday night as the cold front settles farther into the CWA. Saturday, and upper trough is forecast to dig into the region between the ridges. Saturday looks to be ridiculously cool for this time of year, and the coldest day this forecast as highs top out near or 2-3 F below normal. Models still portend a relatively decent chance of convection along the old frontal boundary along and south of I-10. Sunday, the trough ejects east, and a warming trend sets in, bringing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday back up to near- to a couple of degrees above normal. The col is forecast to persist, so the heat will remain at bay for now. Convection will go back to diurnally-driven activity in the Davis Mountains each day. The one wild card in the extended is Hurricane Beryl. The GFS and CMC are in agreement (although not in timing) in bringing it up through central Texas through the col (Beryl under the saddle?) next week, whereas the ECMWF keeps it south of the border. As it stands at the moment, none of the solutions mean a hill of beans for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as we`ll be on the subsident side of the system. Should the track change between now and then, this will need to be re-evaluated. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period outside of showers and storms, MVFR or lower CIGs and VIS in any heavier showers. Left out mention of showers and storms at terminals due to uncertainty in coverage, but CNM and HOB could see showers and storms between 18Z today and 06Z Wednesday. Gusty southeast winds likely at terminals between 02Z and 10Z Wednesday. Rain chances again increase by end of period for terminals in SE NM plains and farther east for PEQ, INK, and possibly MAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 101 77 101 / 20 40 30 20 Dryden 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 103 75 102 / 0 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 74 93 72 92 / 30 60 40 40 Hobbs 74 101 74 100 / 20 30 20 10 Marfa 67 98 67 96 / 20 50 30 70 Midland Intl Airport 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 79 106 78 105 / 10 20 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...94