654
FXUS64 KMAF 031707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

It was a hot one Tuesday afternoon as many locations climbed into
the 100s. Areas to the west did get some relief with scattered
showers and thunderstorms providing some rain and slight cooler
temperatures. Unfortunately, this morning offers little relief from
the heat. A 30kt low-level jet maintains gusty winds and mixing
through the night, greatly abating cooling. Most locations are going
to struggle to cool into the middle 70s by sunrise. This afternoon
is expected to remain much the same as Tuesday. Widespread 100s
return for much of the area with 105+ in the river valleys. This
excessive heat necessitates Heat Advisories for a large portion of
the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Rio Grande.
Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected near the western
terrain, though rain chances may be a touch higher and extend
farther east. Those that do get rain may see a quick downpour and
slightly cooler outflow if they are lucky. Tonight once again sees a
return of the low-level jet and again temperatures struggle to cool
into the 70s. Things remain stagnant again Thursday afternoon with
hot temperatures in the 100s for most and a shower and thunderstorm
potential along and west of the Pecos. Thankfully, we take off some
of the heat as we move into the end of the week.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Much cooler and possibly wetter conditions are in the offing to
finish out this week. Models are now in good agreement that the
upper ridge will break down and shift west as a significant trough
sinks into the Plains late week. By Friday, a cold front will be
making its way south into the region, but uncertainty exists as
to how far. It`s likely that storms will develop Thursday night
along the front across the TX PH. How far south the front travels
will depend on the location and coverage of the storms. High
temperatures Friday will highly depend on where the front ends up,
but given weak northerly flow helping storms move south we expect
much cooler conditions with highs mostly in the 90s. It will
remain very hot along the Rio Grande ahead of the front with highs
still above 100 degrees.

As the upper trough remains in place over the Plains into early next
week, we will maintain northwesterly flow aloft. This setup could
bring multiple rounds of storms and possibly another cold front.
It`s too early to know the timing and coverage of these storms as
this will be highly dependent on what occurs the previous day.
Temperatures will stay closer to normal or even below if we see more
in the way of rain and clouds. We will also be monitoring the track
of Hurricane Beryl to see if it could affect our weather next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period, MVFR VIS and
CIGs or lower in heavier showers or storms for western TAF sites.
Due to uncertainty in coverage, left out mention of showers and
storms at terminals, but greatest chance is forecast from 18Z
today to 06Z Thursday, main risk being lightning, gusty erratic
winds, and heavy rain. Winds at FST veer to southeasterly by 00Z.
Winds remain light at HOB and CNM through period and veer
southeasterly by 04Z-05Z, but become gusty over W TX 00Z-04Z
before decreasing at PEQ by 10Z and 14Z-15Z at INK, MAF, and FST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 104  76  92 /   0  10  20  50
Carlsbad                 77 102  75  93 /  30  20  30  60
Dryden                   75 101  76  98 /   0  10   0  20
Fort Stockton            76 102  75  96 /  10  20  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           73  92  70  86 /  40  40  30  60
Hobbs                    74 100  72  89 /  30  20  30  50
Marfa                    67  96  66  92 /  30  70  40  60
Midland Intl Airport     77 101  76  92 /  10  20  30  50
Odessa                   77 101  76  92 /  10  20  30  50
Wink                     79 104  78  95 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...94