Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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811 FXUS64 KMAF 040521 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Similar to yesterday, VIS SAT shows high clouds streaming in from the southwest over the SE NM plains, with a few high clouds also visible over W TX. These clouds are associated with upper level moisture on the western edge of the ridge that has slid farther east over the southern CONUS. Highs in the triple digits aside from 90s in higher elevations are once again expected this afternoon. Due to widespread highs 5 to 10 degrees above average for early July, Heat Advisories are in effect into this evening for a large portion of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Rio Grande. Radar shows storms over the Davis Mountains and showers moving through Eddy and Lea County, and further growth of showers and storms is expected into this evening. In addition to storms initiating from heating of elevated terrain, increased moisture out west where there is less capping will lead to highest chances of showers and storms over southern Culberson County into the Davis Mountains, with chances also extending northeast into SE NM plains and westernmost Permian Basin. Loss of daytime heating will again lead to dissipation overnight of storms that form in the afternoon. A 30kt low-level jet maintains gusty winds and mixing over W TX tonight, with lows 5 to 10 degrees above average and in the 70s and above, aside from 60s for higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos. Thursday will be another warmer than average day with 105+ readings possible along the Rio Grande, and over the Western Low Rolling Plains as well as Pecos River valley in Reeves County Plains and western Permian Basin. Highest shower and storms chances will again be over southern Culberson County into Davis Mountains extending northeast, but there will be a higher chance of showers and storms farther east over the Stockton Plateau into all but the eastern Permian Basin. Thursday night, low-level jet and dew point temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s keep lows warmer than average and again only falling into the 70s and above aside from 60s in the usual cooler spots. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Friday, the bisected upper ridge continues, with one half off the west coast of NoCal, and the other over the Gulf coast states east of Texas, leaving Texas in a col. A cold front will move into the area, w/the NAM putting fropa at KMAF ~ 16Z. This will result in highs Friday afternoon right around normal. Long range models are consistent in developing convection over the mountains of Chihuahua, and bringing it across the border near the Presidio Valley Friday afternoon, which should merge nicely with expected convective development along the cold front. Fortunately, best chances look to be over Presidio County, which is currently our most drought- stricken area of Texas. Saturday, return flow resumes, with continuing chances of showers and thunderstorms along the old frontal boundary, which . will be pretty much a warm front by then. W/expected cloud cover and convection, temperatures should remain around normal. Sunday looks to be a "down" day, with no frontal boundary to work with. Temperatures will make a valiant attempt to recover, yet end the day a mere ~ 5 F or so above normal. For those not fond of warm weather, this looks to be the warmest day in the extended, and it`s all downhill after that. Sunday night, another front is forecast to approach the area. Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall just south of KBRO, and die out somewhere south of Laredo, according to the latest guidance. W/the front moving into the area Monday, pushing easterly upslope flow, and Beryl to the southeast, models keep relatively decent chances of rain in play through the extended. Much will depend on how much of the tropical airmass makes it up the Rio Grande/Pecos valleys. All of this will also affect highs each day. If the west coast ridge weakens or shifts west in the slightest, this could send Beryl back up though central Texas. Thus, Monday through Wednesday is a crapshoot at this point, and Beryl that far out. For these reasons, we have no reason to deviate from NBM, which puts highs each day at or just below normal. The one downside to the next week remains QPF, as all models remain stingy and pessimistic. Perhaps this will increase if Beryl`s track changes, but right now it looks paltry. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions continue through the period. VCTS near INK continues to weaken and should end within the next hour or two. Winds continue to remain largely southeasterly. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening at most terminals. Confidence in timing and location remains low confidence and have not included in TAF forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 91 72 95 / 30 40 30 30 Carlsbad 74 93 72 95 / 30 50 30 30 Dryden 76 99 75 97 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Stockton 75 96 74 96 / 20 40 30 30 Guadalupe Pass 69 85 67 88 / 30 60 30 40 Hobbs 71 89 68 93 / 40 40 40 20 Marfa 65 91 64 90 / 50 60 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 75 91 72 93 / 30 40 30 30 Odessa 75 91 73 94 / 30 40 30 20 Wink 77 95 75 98 / 30 40 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...91