Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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859 FXUS64 KMAF 050853 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 353 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Convection from last evening has caused an MCV to develop over the Permian Basin that is in turn causing a small area of thunderstorms near Midland/Odessa at the present time. This feature should continue to sag south taking the storms with it until they dissipate later this morning. A trough moving across the northern Great Plains is pushing a cold front through the area this morning that will bring cooler temperatures today. Highs are only expected to reach the lower 90s for many locations, a welcome respite from the triple digit heat seen the past several days. Lift associated with the front should cause more showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon adding to light to modest rainfall totals seen yesterday. The threat of severe weather will be minimal, but if there are any concerns then strong winds and heavy rain will be the threats to watch for. Return flow begins Saturday as surface high pressure slides east and southeasterly winds resume. The trajectory of the air is recirculating moderate temperatures from East Texas so no warming is expected with another day of relatively pleasant temps for this time of year. In addition, there will be enough moisture remaining that there will be a chance for isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains where orographic lift will aid in storm development. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 As we move into the beginning of next week, we remain underneath somewhat weak forcing but general long-wave troughing persists across the north-central part of the lower 48. However, Sunday looks to be both the quietest day of the long term weather-wise with the front responsible for our showers/storms this weekend lifting away. Without much in the likes of clouds/storms, Sunday ends up being the hottest day of the week, with many spots returning above the century mark. The front surges back southward on Monday, setting the stage for a cool and somewhat wet stretch of days maintained by persistent easterly upslope flow. The front looks to stall and linger in the area for a few days, providing a chance to focus isolated to scattered storm development each afternoon. Throwing some additional moisture and storm chances in the mix would be the remnants of Beryl. This remains highly uncertain path and how far west the storm is able to make it into Texas. Regardless, direct impacts will surely not be felt in our neck of the woods, but added moisture from the storm`s remnants could sneak our way. Now whether or not appreciable rain falls on your doorstep this week, the more certain fact is that we will avoid the high heat each afternoon. High temperatures only reach the low 90s for many spots with 80s in the higher elevations through the end of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 TS has diminished tonight though more will reform tomorrow. Coverage will be too sparse to mention in the TAFs at this time but there will be TS affecting at least the flying area if not the TAF sites themselves. Northeast winds will occasionally be gusty in the afternoon. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 92 70 93 73 / 40 40 30 10 Carlsbad 93 70 93 71 / 50 40 30 10 Dryden 98 75 97 75 / 10 20 20 0 Fort Stockton 97 74 94 74 / 30 30 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 86 65 86 70 / 50 40 30 20 Hobbs 89 66 91 69 / 50 30 20 10 Marfa 91 64 89 62 / 50 40 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 92 71 92 73 / 30 40 30 10 Odessa 92 71 92 73 / 30 40 20 10 Wink 95 73 95 75 / 30 30 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10