874
FXUS64 KLZK 071958
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Continue to monitor convection acrs eastern OK this aftn. CAMS have
struggled to get a good handle on things. Based on latest radar
trends, wl include some low PoPs early this evening acrs some our
western zones as the activity is expected to wane close to sunset.

Otherwise, aftn conds have been tranquil acrs the FA, with partly
cloudy skies and temps in the mid 80s to the mid 90s.

Tonight...

Expect some lingering convection early in the west. There are still
indications that sctd convection may affect parts of northwest AR
later tngt as a weak CDFNT apchs fm the northwest. Also, the outer
affects fm Beryl wl bring sctd PoPs into the state fm the southwest
later tngt.

Monday through Tuesday...

Beryl is fcst to make landfall along the TX coast before daybreak on
Mon. The latest NHC guidance conts to take the remnants northward
over east TX Mon, then eventually turn more northeast and track acrs
northwest AR on Tue. The system wl accelerate acrs the FA as it is
absorbed into the long wave upper trof to our northwest.

We continue to emphasize that some deviation in the official track
wl occur with later fcsts. The main impacts on AR fm Beryl cont to
be heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding. Based on
the latest FF guidance, as well as office coordination, we have
opted to hold off on a Flood Watch for our area. It still appears
that the timeframe for heavy rainfall wl be durg the Mon night into
Tue mrng.

The potential for a few tornadoes wl also exist as the remnants
tracks acrs AR. The main focus is generally for locations that are
to the north and east of the center/s track. Abundant cloud cover
and rain chcs wl keep daytime highs well below normal in most areas
Mon and Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After the remnants of Beryl depart the area, mid-level ridging
across the middle of the country will be pushed east by an expanding
ridge across the western US. This will provide warming temperatures
through the end of the period along with little to no rain chances.
No major disturbances look to approach the forecast area through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In the near term, the ongoing convection acrs eastern OK conts
working to the east. CAMS cont to struggle with overall trends and
coverage of this activity this aftn. Thus, have not included any
mention of TS in the fcst, but wl cont to monitor. VFR conds are
expected to persist thru much of the PD. Moisture assocd with
Beryl wl cont to advance into the region tngt and Mon, with MVFR
ceilings returning to western areas Mon mrng. Kept PROB30 groups
later tngt and Mon mrng as fcst confidence rmns low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  70  80 /  10  50  80  90
Camden AR         73  89  71  84 /  30  50  80  70
Harrison AR       68  82  65  72 /  20  70  70  80
Hot Springs AR    74  88  69  80 /  30  60  90  80
Little Rock   AR  76  90  72  83 /  20  40  80  80
Monticello AR     75  92  75  87 /  30  40  60  70
Mount Ida AR      72  85  67  79 /  40  70  90  80
Mountain Home AR  70  84  67  73 /  20  60  70  90
Newport AR        73  89  72  82 /  10  40  70  90
Pine Bluff AR     75  91  73  84 /  20  40  70  80
Russellville AR   74  86  70  79 /  20  70  80  80
Searcy AR         72  89  71  82 /  20  50  80  90
Stuttgart AR      76  89  74  83 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...44