342
FXUS64 KLZK 080902
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
402 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted a broken thin line showers ongoing
across portions of Srn/Cntrl AR early this Monday morning. Some
of this rain was likely not reaching the ground however a couple
ASOS/AWOS sites had reported light rain over the past couple of
hours. Through the predawn hours, this precipitation should lift
Nwrd and become more diffused with time. Looking at NW AR, showers
and thunderstorms had developed along and ahead of a slowly
advancing cold front. This thunderstorm activity should remain
over portions of far NW AR this morning as this frontal boundary
becomes stationary.

The main story today will be in regards to Hurricane Beryl and where
the remnants of Beryl will be headed next. Aloft, a trough was in
situated across the Cntrl Plains with ridging in place along the
Ern CONUS. NHC official forecast calls for Beryl to lift Nwrd
across TX today, after making landfall along the SE TX coast this
morning, before turning NE into and across AR. This forecast track
lines up well with the aforementioned upper steering features
already in place thus confidence in forecast track is high.

What this means for AR is an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with spiral rain bands this afternoon as the
tropical system approaches from the S/SW. By this evening, the
system should be located the ArkLaTex`s region with precipitation
really ramping up across the state. Overnight into Tuesday, the
system will track NEwrd along the I- 30/Hwy 67/167 corridors.
Precipitation will begin to wind down from SW to NE on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as drier air wraps around the system.

Rainfall through the period should range from 2 to 5 inches across
the current flood watch area with lower amounts over E and SE
sections of the state. Within the flood watch area, there is the
potential for amounts greater than 5 inches but this should be
localized to portions of W AR into N-Cntrl AR. Much of Nrn AR is
running below average on precipitation over the last 30 days so
initially there shouldn`t be much concern for flooding, but as the
system evolves and dumps several inches of rain within a 24 hour
period, instances of flash flooding will be possible. For the
Ouachita Mtns, soil moisture is a little higher to start off thus
flash flooding concerns could occur quicker in these locations.
Terrain influences could play a part in flash flooding given the
heaviest swath of precipitation is expected to be over hilly and
mountainous areas of the state.

Winds and wind gusts across the CWA should be below Wind Advisory
criteria however that does not mean we can not have gusts between 30
and 40 mph within heavier precipitation of feeder bands. When
precipitation is not falling, winds should be light and
counterclockwise around the center of Beryl`s present position.

With any landfalling tropical system, tornadoes are possible to the
N and E of the center track. For AR, this covers a significant
portion of the state. The forecasted environmental SRH at 0-1km and
0-3km will be conducive for the development of tornadoes. These
tornadoes would likely be embedded within feeder bands where storms
can take advantage of background SRH in place. Any stronger cells
out by themselves will also pose a tornado hazard. These type of
tornadoes are usually short in duration, track length, and can
develop with little lead time. Stay tuned for the latest
information and remain weather aware this afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Once the remnants of Beryl exit to the northeast Tue night...calmer
conditions are expected for much of the rest of the forecast. Temps
will start off below normal early in the period with a trough
situated over the MS River Valley region...and while weak upper
shortwaves may pass around the base of this upper trough through
Fri...chances for seeing any additional convection look limited at
this time. Even so...cannot completely rule out any afternoon summer-
time pulse convection. By late this week into the weekend...the
influence of this upper trough will wane as the trough flattens
out...and temps will warm back to around mid-July normals. Heat
index values will also increase back to near Heat Adv levels late in
the forecast...but mostly dry conditions are expected for much of
the long term forecast. &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conds should prevail overnight with only VCSH over portions of
Srn AR. On Mon, SHRA/TSRA activity will increase in coverage from
S to N through the afternoon as the remnants of Beryl move into
the state. MVFR conds are anticipated to develop as lower CIGs and
VIS accompany heavier precipitation. Winds will be out of the
E/NE/N through much of the period with gusts up to 20 kts by
evening. Convection will continue through the end of the period
with near IFR conds to round out the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  70  79  66 /  50  90  90  40
Camden AR         87  70  81  66 /  60  90  70  10
Harrison AR       84  65  73  61 /  80  90  90  30
Hot Springs AR    86  69  80  66 /  80  90  80  20
Little Rock   AR  87  74  82  69 /  40  90  90  30
Monticello AR     90  74  84  69 /  40  70  70  20
Mount Ida AR      84  66  79  64 /  80 100  80  20
Mountain Home AR  85  67  73  64 /  70  90  90  40
Newport AR        88  71  81  67 /  40  90  90  50
Pine Bluff AR     89  72  82  68 /  40  90  70  20
Russellville AR   86  69  78  65 /  60  90  90  20
Searcy AR         87  71  81  67 /  30  90  90  40
Stuttgart AR      88  74  82  69 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>033-039-042>044-052>054-103-112-
113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-
240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70