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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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368 FXUS64 KLZK 020531 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Latest surface observations across the forecast area indicate conditions are less supportive of signifIcant heat stress than those of recent afternoons. Most heat index values are ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. 19z subjective analysis reveals a short wavelength ridge axis from northeast to southeast across the forecast area. This feature is expected to slide eastward during this period. Low level southerly flow will develop and slowly increase, with low level humidity affected accordingly. With the added low level humidity, moderate instability will develop late in the period. Upper level energy will move from west to east, on a track just north of the Arkansas, Missouri border. This feature is expected to support convection, with some cells able to reach northern sections of the forecast area late in the period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The extended term will begin with an upper level ridge of high pressure across the area, and the heat and humidity will be on full blast for Wednesday and Thursday - some type of heat advisory or warning will likely be required. The upper ridge will shift eastward and a trof will push eastward across the central part of the country. A cold front will push into the region Thursday night/Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler and drier air will spread across the region in the wake of the front. Looking beyond the extended term...we will watch to see what happens to the remnants of Beryl. Long range models take it across the Yucatan and into the Gulf...but where it goes from there is still questionable. There is an outside chance some of the moisture could make it up this way, but I wouldn`t bank on it just yet. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR condns were noted around the FA this evng, w/ only some passing high cloud cover. Expect VFR condns thru the coming TAF PD, w/ Srly winds resuming Tues aftn. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 75 98 77 / 0 0 20 10 Camden AR 98 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 Harrison AR 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 97 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 96 79 100 81 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 97 78 99 79 / 0 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 96 75 98 76 / 10 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 94 74 97 75 / 0 0 30 20 Newport AR 93 74 98 77 / 0 0 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 95 76 99 79 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 96 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 0 Searcy AR 94 74 98 77 / 0 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 93 76 97 80 / 0 0 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-066-067-121-122-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...72