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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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172 FXUS64 KLZK 070853 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Regional infrared satellite imagery depicted high clouds streaming across the state from the SW early this Sunday morning. Temperatures were starting out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs anticipated to top out in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. No significant weather is expected through much of today, however a warm front will be in the process of lifting Nwrd across Srn AR into the afternoon hours. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over far Srn sections of the state in association with the frontal boundary. Synoptically, the pattern will be defined by a digging/deepening upper trough over the plains states with two upper ridges located invof CA and along the Wrn Atlantic. The ridge over the Wrn Atlantic does have a compact low pressure system co-located within an expansive area of ridging. Zooming in closer to AR, a weak frontal boundary will slide into far NW AR in conjunction with this digging trough. Winds will switch back around to the S/SE at most locations today and moisture will rebound in response to the changing airmass. Tonight into Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will dip further into NW sections of AR sparking showers and thunderstorms across a large part of the state. PoP chances will be greatest on Monday with rainfall amounts ranging from a couple tenths of an inch over SE AR to possibly 1-1.5 inches over SW AR. Rainfall amounts over Cntrl and Nrn AR could range from around a quarter to three- quarters of an inch. While rainfall is ongoing across AR due to a stalled frontal system in addition to passing upper level energy, the remnants of Beryl will be moving towards AR from the SW on Monday. Moisture from this system will enter SW AR as early as Monday afternoon and evening. The remnants of Beryl will be in the process of accelerating as the upper level trough scoops up the system just ahead of the stalled cold front. While the exact track and speed of this storm remains uncertain, the main impacts across AR are expected to be for the potential of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding. With any land-falling tropical system, there will be the potential for tornadoes for locations N and E of the center track, so we will be monitoring that threat as well as the event nears. High temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday with readings topping out in the largely in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Latest forecast data and official NHC track show the center of the remnants of Beryl entering the SWRN corner of the state at the start of the long term period...lifting NE generally along the I-30/US-67 corridor during the daytime hrs on Tue. The remnants of Beryl will then exit to the NE of AR by late Tue evening/night. The primary forecast focus with the remnants of Beryl will be some potential areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding...along with some increased threat for some SVR Wx. The SVR threat will be confined to brief tornadoes due to increased low level SRH...along with some potential for damaging winds outside any tornado threat. Rainfall amounts with the remnants of Beryl will be on the order of 1 to 4 inches in vicinity of the SFC low. Locally higher amounts could be seen within the heavy rainfall axis. After the remnants of Beryl exit by late Tue night...some lingering POPs are forecast on Wed before all energy moves out of the area. Beyond Beryl...mainly dry conditions are expected through the rest of the forecast...with temps warming back up from the rain cooled early part of the long term period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF period thanks to high pressure remaining in control across the region. Today, a warm front will begin to lift Nwrd across Srn sections of state, thus the mention of SHRA within PROB30 groups late in the period at KPBF and KLLQ. TSRA will possible over far NW AR towards the end of the period. Winds on Sunday will E/SE at around 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 72 87 69 / 0 10 60 60 Camden AR 95 74 88 72 / 20 30 60 70 Harrison AR 92 67 84 65 / 0 20 80 60 Hot Springs AR 94 73 87 68 / 0 30 70 70 Little Rock AR 94 76 88 71 / 0 20 60 70 Monticello AR 93 76 90 74 / 20 20 50 60 Mount Ida AR 93 70 84 67 / 0 40 70 70 Mountain Home AR 91 70 85 67 / 0 20 80 60 Newport AR 93 73 88 71 / 0 10 50 60 Pine Bluff AR 93 75 89 72 / 10 20 50 60 Russellville AR 94 72 85 69 / 0 30 70 70 Searcy AR 93 72 88 70 / 0 20 60 60 Stuttgart AR 92 76 87 73 / 0 20 50 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...70