944
FXUS64 KLZK 032342
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The ridge of high pressure across the area is being flattened by a
trof moving thru the midsection of the country. The ridge will hold
thru tomorrow, but will eventually give way to lower heights on
Friday, when a mean trof takes hold of the area.

Very hot and humid conditions will continue again tomorrow. Forecast
afternoon maximum heat indices were trending a bit higher in a
few areas, so I expanded it to include the rest of the AR River
Valley tomorrow, and in the NE I added Fulton and Izard Counties
to the mix.

Everything will change on Friday as the trof takes hold, and a cold
front will begin moving into the state. Showers and thunderstorms
will become more numerous Thursday night into Friday, and will drop
high temperatures down into the 80`s behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Changes in the pattern will be seen across the state and region
through the long term portion of the forecast. For most, these
changes will be well received.

H500 ridging will persist across the western US with troughing noted
across the central and eastern parts of the country. This setup will
be favorable for some relief from the heat as well as occasional
rainfall chances as disturbances pass through the W/NW flow.

Dry conditions will be seen for much of the state on Saturday as sfc
ridging briefly holds over the area. From Sun-Mon a cold front will
approach from the NW and rain chances will increase as it moves into
the state. Temperatures will be cooler as the front lingers near the
state and some rain chances will remain in the forecast through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Isolated convection will cont to wane this evening with the loss
of aftn heating. Based on radar trends, kept VC groups in at a few
sites early. Otherwise, VFR conds wl again prevail thru Thu. Aftn
CU field wl again form on Thu. Included PROB30 groups at KHRO and
KBPK as scattered convection wl again be possible.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-
113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004-005-014-
024-052-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-240-
241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-121-
122-130-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-103-112-140-
141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...44