Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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576 FXUS64 KLZK 040906 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Temperatures across AR on this 4th of July morning ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s. These warm readings will set the stage for another dangerously hot and humid afternoon across the region. Looking at the larger scale pattern, H500 ridging was nearly centered overtop the Srn MS Valley. Closer to the surface, high pressure was located along the Srn Appalachians Mtns with low pressure near the TX and OK Panhandles. Between these surface features, winds will be out of the S and SW at around 10 to 15 mph locally. Given the antecedent starting point in temperatures this morning, the heat will build in quickly with readings reaching the mid 90s to near 100 degrees this afternoon. Accounting for high humidity already in place, heat index values are expected to climb above 110 degrees across the Excessive Heat Warning area and range from 105 to 110 degrees across the Heat Advisory area. These warnings and advisories cover the entire state thus no relief to be found, at least through the late afternoon hours. Perhaps a stray afternoon shower will bring relief to some, but these should prove to be far and few between. By this evening, a cold front will approach NWrn AR from the plains states with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms developing near this boundary. This activity will affect the aforementioned locations near dark to the overnight period tonight. While the threat for organized severe weather is low, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible. Damaging winds and marginally large hail would be primary concerns. Those participating in firework activities should pay close attention to changing weather conditions over far Wrn AR, into NWrn/Nrn AR. Overnight into Friday, the cold front will push further into AR with precipitation advancing SEwrd. PoPs will ramp up over Cntrl AR as showers and thunderstorms move across the state. This activity will push SEwrd through the day on Friday across Srn sections of the state. In the wake of the boundary, the cold front will switch surface winds back to the N and NE thus dry air advection will commence. Dew point temperatures will fall back into the 60s with temperatures only climbing into the 80s to lower 90s. At this time, heat headlines may not be needed for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Large scale troughing will overtake most areas east of the Rockies in the extended period, with some ridging along the Gulf Coast and the western states. This will keep us out of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of rain. The period will begin with a stalled front in northern Louisiana, and small chances of showers/thunderstorms near the front in southern Arkansas on Saturday. The front will drift northward into the state on Sunday, with isolated to scattered precipitation during the afternoon in all but the northeast. Temperatures during the weekend will be seasonal. Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the front will come to a halt and may wash out somewhere over the central or southern counties. At the same time, the remnants of tropical system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday through Wednesday, especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much needed rain, temperatures will remain close to normal/not so hot. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Mainly VFR conds are expected through the TAF period at most locations. Could be some FG near KADF where the dew point depression was zero. Any FG that develops should dissipate shortly after daylight. Winds should be out of the S/SW on Thurs with speeds between 10 and 15 kts. PROB30 groups were introduced over Nrn sites late in the period with the approach of a cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 98 72 90 66 / 30 60 20 0 Camden AR 98 75 92 70 / 10 30 50 20 Harrison AR 98 69 86 62 / 50 50 10 0 Hot Springs AR 99 74 92 69 / 20 40 30 10 Little Rock AR 98 77 92 72 / 20 40 30 10 Monticello AR 98 77 92 72 / 40 40 70 20 Mount Ida AR 98 71 90 66 / 20 50 30 10 Mountain Home AR 96 71 86 64 / 40 70 10 0 Newport AR 98 73 90 68 / 30 50 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 98 76 91 70 / 30 40 50 10 Russellville AR 99 73 91 68 / 30 60 20 10 Searcy AR 98 73 91 68 / 30 50 30 10 Stuttgart AR 97 76 90 71 / 20 50 40 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047- 052>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-138-212-213-230-238. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ103-112-137-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...70