831
FXUS61 KLWX 070752
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalls south of the area today, with dry and less humid
conditions in wake of the front. Heat, humidity, and daily
thunderstorm chances return for much of the upcoming week as the
front lifts north across the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak front has mostly pushed through early this morning, as noted
by the northwest winds and lower dew points in its wake. The front
is going to stall just east and south of the area today, keeping
most of us dry. However, a few showers or thunderstorms could
develop along the front throughout the day. This would mainly be
over the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. Hot temperatures in the
low to mid 90s this afternoon will be accompanied by considerably
less humidity. Mid to high-level cloudiness persists over the area
today, producing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mild overnight lows
in the upper 60s to mid 70s, though some urban centers along I-95
will barely drop below 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The stalled front to our south quickly lifts north through the area
Monday as a warm front. Southerly flow kicks in by Monday afternoon,
ushering in a deep moist airmass. PWATs increase to around 1.7-1.9"
Monday, then well over 2" Tuesday. Dew points consistently stay in
the low to mid 70s to start the week. Afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s result in peak heat indices of 100-105 across the area.

Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Monday. The greater focus will be west of US-15 to start the week,
then become widely scattered Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats from
most storms that develop. Shower/thunderstorm activity dissipates in
the evening, though some convection could linger into the overnight.
Mild and muggy overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The current NHC track shows the remnants of Beryl tracking from the
Central Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday as a Tropical Depression. As this occurs, a mid-latitude
trough is expected to combine with Beryl`s remnant circulation to
form a broader upper trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile,
guidance has a 600+ decameter upper ridge forming offshore in the
western Atlantic, with a strong Bermuda high in place at the
surface. Such a surface pattern will maintain a warm and very humid
airmass across the region within continual southerly flow.

A weakening frontal boundary associated with the trough over the
Great Lakes is expected to track into the area on Wednesday into
Thursday, and then eventually stall out as it runs into the
influence of the strong Bermuda high offshore. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening during the long term period, especially in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary, where low-level convergence will be maximized.
Flooding could eventually become a concern, particularly in urban
areas, as the potential is there for multiple days in a row with
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the front within an
environment characterized by precipitable water values of 2+ inches.
Temperatures in the long term period should start out above normal
on Wednesday, with highs in the lower to middle 90s, and then settle
back toward normal, with high temperatures generally in the upper
80s for most from Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the start of the week. North winds
this morning in wake of a passing front become light/variable this
afternoon as high pressure quickly crosses the area. By this
evening, light south winds prevail.

A warm front lifts north through the area Monday, bringing the
return of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
convection Monday looks to focus near CHO/MRB, with more isolated
activity at the other terminals. Coverage of showers/storms
increases Tuesday. Any storm that moves over a terminal could
produce brief periods of reduced visibility and gusty winds. Most of
the convection should dissipate each evening.

Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected on both
Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon or evening thunderstorms may lead
to temporary restrictions either day.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak front crossing the waters early this morning is producing a
brief period of northwest winds gusting to around 20 knots. A Marine
Weather Statement is in effect for all the waters for this brief
increase in winds. After sunrise, sub-SCA conditions expected for
the rest of today and tonight as weak high pressure crosses the
area. Winds will be variable at times today.

A warm front lifts north across the local waters Monday, bringing a
return of southerly winds at 5-10 knots. Winds remain below SCA
criteria through Monday night. Southerly channeling Tuesday is
likely to produce SCA conditions Tuesday evening into Tuesday night
as wind gust to 20 knots in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters
Monday afternoon, then an increase in coverage is expected for
Tuesday. Any strong storm will be capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 35 knots and frequent lightning strikes.

Southerly flow is expected over the waters on both Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds may approach low-end SCA levels in channeled
southerly flow either day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light northerly winds this morning in wake of a weak front that
stalls to our south. This should bring anomalies down for today.
However, the front lifts north of the area Monday, bringing a return
to southerly flow for much of the week. Elevated tide levels are
likely by mid week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/KJP
MARINE...KRR/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR