340
FXUS64 KLUB 041144
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High temperatures today will be fairly similar to what was observed
yesterday as our overall pattern won`t change much ahead of the
approaching cold front. As of 2 am, this front was located from
northeastern Colorado into southern Nebraska and is expected to
enter the far southwestern Texas Panhandle around noon. Based on the
timing of the front most of the area should still warm into the
upper 90s to lower 100s, while the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
may only warm into the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints should keep heat
indices just below the 105 degree value across the Rolling Plains
and far southeastern Texas Panhandle hence no Heat Advisory will be
issued for today. Convective development is expected along the front
between 3 pm and 4 pm as the capping inversion erodes. Surface based
CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg will be in place ahead of the front
but shear will be meager with only around 15-20 kts of effective
bulk shear. This would suggest multi-cell clusters as the primary
storm mode. Cloud bases around 8,000 ft with a well mixed boundary
layer below it, indicates the potential for a few stronger wind
gusts up to 60 mph. The slower storm motions could also lead to
heavy rainfall although storms should slowly move to the southeast
along the leading edge of the front limiting the overall flooding
threat. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end around
midnight but skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night.
Behind the front temperatures will be cooler with overnight lows
dropping into the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s across the
Rolling Plains. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The cold front will be south of our area by Friday morning with
easterly upslope surface flow developing in its wake. This will
lead to stratus formation Friday morning which will slowly
dissipate through the late morning. The cloudy start to the day
combined with the cooler airmass behind the cold front means
Friday will be quite wonderful temperature wise with high
temperatures topping out in the 80s. Precipitation chances on
Friday are still uncertain as it appears we should remain cloudy
much of the day but with modestly steep lapse rates in the mid-
levels 500-1000 J/kg may still be realized across the region
especially if the low clouds dissipate in the morning hours. Any
leftover boundaries or convergence along the edge of the Caprock
may lead to shower/thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. The
more likely scenario for rain in our area though would be Friday
evening and overnight as convection develops in eastern New Mexico
as a shortwave moves overhead and eventually spreading into West
Texas.

An upper-level ridge will expand across the western CONUS this
weekend with broad troughing remaining in place across the central
CONUS. This will leave our forecast area within northwest flow aloft
and hence give us several additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms especially during the evening and overnight hours
across the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Temperatures will slowly rebound on Saturday into the upper 80s to
lower 90s with a more substantial boost on Sunday thanks to a return
of southwesterly surface winds with highs in the 90s. Another cold
front will move through the region on Monday bringing slightly
cooler temperatures and another round of showers and thunderstorms
to most of our forecast area. Northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through the middle of next week keeping evening and overnight
precipitation chances possible along with temperatures right around
average for early July. Our upper-level pattern will become more
northerly by the end of next week as the ridge begins to expand
towards West Texas which should lead to drier and warmer
conditions. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of this
TAF period. Winds will remain below 15 kts out of the southwest
this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will
lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon as well as switch
winds around to the north and then eventually east. Starting
around 20z convective development is possible at all three TAF
sites. Confidence is currently highest at LBB and CDS to see a
direct impact hence a prevailing thunderstorm mention has been
included although the exact timing will need to be refined through
the day. These thunderstorms will slowly slide south and east
through the evening so all TAF sites should become dry by late
tonight. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty and erratic winds, as well as brief drops in
visibility due to heavy rain. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58