838
FXUS64 KLUB 050003
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today`s jet runs from the Pacific NW into the central Plains thence
up into New England and the Canadian Maritimes.  This broad trough
is helping to drive a frontal system through the area (more about
that later.)  Little change is expected with the general location of
the jet though some variability in speed will be noted as impulses
progress along the jet path well to our north.  Synoptically, we`ll
see a fairly stable pattern over the next 24 hours.

A cold front continues to slowly drift southward and, as of early
this afternoon, was situated from near Muleshoe to Turkey. Given the
heating south of the boundary, decent southerly winds, and other
factors, would suspect we`ll see a continued slowing of the frontal
progress for a few hours.  That is, until convective initiation
occurs.  At this point, it looks as if we`ll be seeing scattered
storms develop by mid-afternoon with a general increase in coverage
as the afternoon and evening progresses.  Pinpointing exactly who
will get rain and when is tricky at best.  In weakly forced
situations, such as today, the front will likely be the initial
forcing mechanism to get things going.  Thereafter, cold pool
processes, outflow mergers, and such will drive the evolution and
location.  Unfortunately, modeling is not sufficiently good, with
the limited upper air observations, to really refine such
detail...particularly before convective initiation.  As such, we
will broadbrush POPs to cover the expected situation.

The area south of a line from Muleshoe to Happy and north of a line
from Lamesa to Aspermont looks to have the greatest risk of storms
impacting evening activities.  Wind gusts to 60 mph still look
reasonable given dry sub-cloud thermal profiles though a bit higher
cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.  The hail threat does
not look overly high given limited instability and mild shear.
Lightning will be present with most storms this evening. It should
be noted that most storms should be fairly short lived at any given
location, 30 mins to perhaps an hour though training of multiple
storms over the area (west to east) may be possible in limited form.
 There are some solutions depicting persistent storms to continue
overnight, particularly north of the frontal boundary. We are
getting to that time of year which that phenomenon is possible, but
we will have to see how this evening`s evolution progresses first.
Guidance does not normally handle overnight persistent convection
well during the summer months nor is it often associated with a
frontal boundary. Alas, sometimes it is.

Toward Friday morning, we should, at least, see some return of
stratus which would give us a bit of a cloudy start to the day
around the H8 level.  Skies should scatter out during the late
morning and early afternoon with another opportunity for scattered
thunderstorm activity starting Friday afternoon into the evening
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A fairly active weather pattern remains expected through much of
next week. An upper shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies will lead
to more potential for showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening.
Warmer SSW flow on Sunday will bring temperatures back into the mid
90s to near 100 for portions of the region before a cold front moves
through Sunday night into Monday leading to more storm chances.
Latest long-term guidance keeps a majority of the moisture next week
generally south and east of the CWA, however the persistent moist
ESE low-level flow and the NW flow aloft would suggest that the
storm chances would continue. Highs beginning Monday will be a bit
cooler ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered to broken convection exists along a frontal zone which
extends from southwest OK through the central and southwest South
Plains as of this writing. All of this activity will gradually sag
east and southeastward before diminishing later this evening/night.
LBB will have a thunderstorm affecting the terminal at the start
of the TAF, while the bulk of the activity will likely avoid PVW
and CDS. Hence, have only included VCTS at the northern terminals,
but will monitor and amend if a rogue storm threatens those
sites. Strong, erratic winds and reduced visibility in heavy
downpours will be the greatest threats with any more intense
cores. Quieter conditions will follow later this evening as
cooler air moves in on northeasterly breezes. It does appear a
period of MVFR (perhaps even briefly IFR) cigs will follow well
behind the front toward Friday morning, returning to VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. After this evening`s convection, there
with be additional rain/storm chances on Friday, though
confidence in location/timing remain low and have been omitted
from the TAFs ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...23