Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
747 FXUS64 KLUB 070420 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1120 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Some notable synoptic scale changes are starting to get underway across the CONUS this afternoon as the very broad trough axis extending from Texas into the central Canadian Provinces starts to move eastward. The UL trough will sharpen as the base begins to interact and phase with T.C. Beryl. Compared to the cool season, both will shift eastward slowly, but the trough should prove interesting for our weather setup. A surface low should begin to drop ESE out of SERN Colorado through the overnight hours into tomorrow. In terms of sensible weather, we`ll see much warmer temperatures than experienced yesterday though forecast soundings suggest we will remain sufficiently dry / capped in the lower levels to disallow storms this afternoon and evening. Of course, it`s possible we could see one or two storms get going, but this would be the exception rather than the rule and be confined to areas where low level moisture pooling is maximized. This morning`s analysis suggests that the best low level moisture has remained across the SWRN South Plains, but we`ll have to see how things will evolve as the afternoon wears on. Tonight, we`re expecting a quiet weather night with seasonably normal overnight lows preceding a rapid warm-up to near the century mark on Sunday. The blends hint at some low-end POPs up in our NW which are reflected in the official forecast but confidence is low that they will materialize. With regard to the heat; no need to fret as another cold front is anticipated to enter the area probably making it to our northern row of counties by early afternoon and clearing the CWFA over the course of 4-6 hours. For many locations, the front should not provide too much relief from high temperatures, but perhaps this front, like many, will progress more rapidly than guidance might suggest. There are some synoptic scale hints this could occur (primarily the sharpening of the UL trough and embedded shortwave disturbances embedded in the mean flow) which could give the cool air a bit more push. Notably in the NERN zones, storm development in the vicinity of the front, is anticipated for the afternoon. Naturally, if the front is realized as more progressive, this would alter storm chances further southward in turn. With respect to Sunday storms, current indications suggest a reasonably moist vertical column with antecedent PW values ~1.5" and slow storm motions yielding at least some threat for locally heavy rainfall. One negative factor for the rainfall potential could be the proximity of T.C. Beryl as it comes ashore. Typically, we do see strong subsidence well beyond the main cyclone on the outer flank and this interaction may or may not be handled well in the fcst guidance. Will we see storms in WTX tomorrow afternoon? Probably....will they be conducive for heavy rain? It depends on which system proves most juxtapositionally influential....the trough over the central CONUS or the warm core low of Beryl. Current confidence in storms producing heavy rain in the afternoon period is moderate. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A cold front remains expected to track southward across the area Sunday night into Monday. The moist, easterly flow pattern in the wake of the front along with sufficient upper forcing will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Highest rainfall totals are presently expected across the far SE Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains with large-scale models ranging from around 1 to 1.5 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible within thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail possible as well, given the notable inverted-V sounding profiles and drier mid-levels. Once everything moves out by Monday evening, conditions look to be much quieter through the end of the week. A building ridge to the west should keep any moisture from Beryl well east of our area. Tuesday is expected to stay completely dry, while isolated storms are possible in the afternoon/evening hours the remainder of the week, mainly across the western South Plains. After a very rain- cooled Monday with highs in the 70s and low 80s, temperatures will increase each day throughout the week, with highs returning to the mid 90s by Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Increasing storm chances are expected at all TAF sites by late Sunday afternoon, with the highest confidence for storms being at KCDS. Stronger storms may lead to gusty and erratic winds in addition to frequent lightning and reduced visibility from localized heavy rainfall. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...12