968
FNUS76 KLOX 062253
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for Lake Fire...Los Padres NF
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
353 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000
FEET UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A relatively deep marine layer will likely support
strong diurnal differences across the fire with predominately NW
(afternoon) to northeast (evening to morning) wind gusts of 10 to
20 mph near the ridgetops mainly above 2500-3000 feet in elevation
with nearly steady humidity between 10-25 percent. Below 2000 feet,
expect west to northwest wind gusts 10 to 20 mph late morning to
early evening and light south to southeast winds late night through
mid morning. Afternoon humidity below 2000 feet will fall to between
20-30 percent with overnight recoveries in the 60-80 percent range.
Plume dominated fire behavior with gusty and erratic winds near the
fire possible due to deep mixing heights anytime mid morning to early
evening through at least Sunday.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....75-85, except 60-70 below 2000 feet.
Max humidity........20-40 percent, except 60-80 percent below 2000 feet.
Eye level winds.....(Above 2500-3000 feet) West to northwest 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 8 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100. (Below 2000 feet) Northwest winds around
                    3 mph becoming south to southeast after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........(Above 2500-3000 feet) West to northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100. (Below 2000 feet) Northwest winds around
                    5 mph becoming south to southeast after midnight.
Ridgetop wind.......West to northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100.
Mixing height.......3000-5000 ft AGL early evening lowering to 1000 ft AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....North to northwest 10-15 mph becoming east to northeast 5-10 mph around midnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....95-103, except 85-95 below 2000 feet.
Min humidity........10-20 percent (lowest southeast facing slopes above 2500K feet),
                    except 20-30 percent below 2000 feet.
Eye level winds.....(Above 2500-3000 feet) Northeast to east winds 3-5 mph shifting west 5-7 mph
                    after 1200. (Below 2000 feet) South to southeast up to 3 mph becoming
                    west to northwest 5-8 mph between 1000-1200.
Wind (20 ft)........(Above 2500-3000 feet) Northeast to east winds 5-8 mph shifting west 8-12 mph
                    after 1200. (Below 2000 feet) South to southeast up to 5 mph becoming
                    west to northwest 8-15 mph between 1000-1200.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph becoming west to northwest
                    after 1200.
Mixing height.......1000-2000 ft AGL rising to 15000-17000 ft AGL by 1000.
Transport winds.....North to northeast around 10 mph becoming northwest after 1300.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....75-85, except 60-70 below 2000 feet.
Max humidity........15-35 percent, except 60-80 percent below 2000 feet.
Eye level winds.....(Above 2500-3000 feet) West to northwest 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 8 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100. (Below 2000 feet) Northwest winds around
                    3 mph becoming southwest to southeast between 1900-2200.
Wind (20 ft)........(Above 2500-3000 feet) West to northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100. (Below 2000 feet) Northwest winds around
                    5 mph becoming southwest to southeast between 1900-2200.
Ridgetop wind.......West to northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
                    becoming northeast around 2100.
Mixing height.......15000 ft AGL lowering to 1000 ft AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....North to northwest 10-15 mph becoming east to northeast 5-10 mph
                    around midnight.

$$
Forecaster...MUNROE/GOMBERG
Requested by...Jeremy Camacho
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417505.0/LOX
.DELDT 07/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jjcamach@countyofsb.org, peter.stephenson@usda.gov, astornet@countyofsb.org, nicholas.kostechko@usda.gov