441
FXUS66 KLOX 061138
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
438 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/857 PM.

A long-lasting and extreme heatwave will continue across the
region, and especially the interior, through much of next week.
There is a high risk for dangerous heat illness and fast-growing
fires. High temperatures will reach 95 to 105 degrees in many
areas away from the coast, and 105 to 115 across interior valleys
and mountains. All-time records will be threatened. Dense fog may
develop across some beaches during the night and morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...06/436 AM.

The long duration period of dangerously hot weather continues for
the region for the entire next week due to unusually high pressure
aloft over the region. This is a dangerous situation with all the
ingredients for a high risk of heat-illness and fast growing
fires. PLEASE avoid hiking in the mountains and the hills through
this weekend, make plans on how you will stay cool, and stay away
from anything that could spark a fire.

While the coastal locations will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday thanks to increasing onshore trends, the far interior
locations such as the Antelope Valley, will warm a few degrees
thanks to a slight increase in upper level heights from 596 to 597
dam. As a result, Lancaster, Palmdale, Sandberg, and Paso Robles
have the potential of breaking daily high record temperatures
today.

On Sunday, 5-10 degrees of cooling is expected across the region
in part due to a slight lowering in upper level heights for the
interior areas, and the increase in onshore trends across the
coastal areas. Then little to no change is expected in
temperatures from Sunday to Monday. Temperatures are still
expected to be 3-10 degrees above normal across the coasts and
12-20 degrees across the interior mountains and far interior
valleys through the weekend.

As for low clouds, they were slower to appear this morning. Clouds
have just started to overspread the Los Angeles Coast from the
south and inch into the Central Coast from the north. These
clouds are expected to burn off by the morning, but remain just
off the coast. Sunday is a different story, as the onshore push
may allow the clouds to push deeper inland, and then remain across
the beaches through the day. However, sundowners across the Santa
Barbara Coast are expected Sunday night which will keep low
clouds off the Santa Barbara that night.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...05/213 PM.

The upper level high, centered over southeast California on
Monday, is poised to meander northwest into Nevada Tuesday through
at least Thursday. This will cause the strength of high pressure
over southwest California to drop a bit, resulting in a few
degrees drop in the temperatures over the mountains and interior
(still very hot). This will also cause the onshore flow to weaken
once again (similar to today but likely not to this magnitude). As
a result, coastal and valley areas will likely trend hotter again.
While there is a range in the ensemble projections, most push
temperatures inland of the beaches back up to about 5 degree below
today and tomorrows temperatures. On top of that, northwest winds
will increase, especially over southwest Santa Barbara County,
which will further warm it up. So the morale of the story is that
this heat wave may not be done with us just quite yet.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0023Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 37 deg C.

High confidence in 00Z CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and
KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the rest of the coastal 00Z TAFs. There is
a 30% chance that KSBP reaches IFR conditions due to uncertainty
of cig/vsby arrival. There is a 20% KSMX remains MVFR throughout the
forecast period. All other coastal sites should reach IFR/LIFR
conditions tonight, clearing around midday. Arrival and
dissipation of cigs/vsbys may be off +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance
that cigs may arrive as early as 04Z. There is a 20% that VLIFR
conditions may occur in the period after 10Z through 14Z. Cigs/vsbys
are expected to improve to at least MVFR conditions around 15Z.
No significant easterly component of the wind expected in the
forecast period. Arrival and disspation of cigs/vsbys may be off
+/- 2 hours.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions should
prevail for most of the forecast period. However, there is a 10-20%
chance of MVFR conditions due to decreased vsbys in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...05/803 PM.

In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will
continue in the southern zones (PZZ673/PZZ676) thru Sat morning.
In the northern zone (PZZ670), SCA conds are likely (70% chance)
this afternoon thru Sat morning. For the most part, expect winds
to remain below SCA levels Sat afternoon thru Wed night except for
a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Sunday night. There
is also a 30% chance of SCA level NW winds in the far outer
waters and from near Pt. Conception to NW of San Nicolas Island,
especially during the late afternoon thru late evening hours.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, conditions have subsided below
SCA levels. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds Sat
afternoon/eve, otherwise SCA conds are not expected Sat night thru
Wed night.

For the inner waters south of Pt Conception, SCA conditions are
not expected through Monday. SCA winds will be possible Tuesday
evening in western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel, mainly
from Santa Cruz Island to the SBA County south coast from Pt.
Conception to Gaviota to Refugio State Beach. Otherwise, conds
will be below SCA levels for the southern inner waters thru Wed
night.

Areas of dense fog will affect portions of the coastal waters
tonight into Sat morning. Please reference the Marine Weather
Statement for additional information.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 38-343>345-353-376>379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 88-342-348-351-352-356>358-369>375-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 341-347-355-367-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for
      zone 548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning
      for zones 342>345-349-351>353-376-377. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      378-381. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/DB
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Sirard/Lewis/Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox