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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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300 FXUS63 KLOT 080837 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (30 to 40 percent) for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front. Torrential downpours and locally gusty winds may accompany these storms. - Post-Tropical Depression Beryl will move through the Ohio River Valley or Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday night with a corresponding threat for heavy rain and gusty winds. - Heat and humidity levels will increase toward the end of next week and continue into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Through Tuesday: The primarily forecast challenges today will once again revolve around the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly this afternoon through early evening along an approaching cold front. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts the presence of several weak remnant MCV/mid-level perturbations streaming northeastward across IA and IL in advance of an approaching upper trough centered across the Mid-Missouri Valley early this morning. There have been a few short lived showers pop up from time to time with the IL impulses, but by far most of the convective activity has remained to our west in IA where a slightly better thermodynamic environment resides. This MCS has been in a weakening phase for the past couple hours, and this trend is expected to continue as it moves into the less favorable thermodynamic environment east of the Mississippi. While a few isolated showers cannot be totally ruled out this morning, it appears most areas will remain dry through the morning. Accordingly, this will allow the seasonably moist airmass overhead to destabilize through the day, thus priming the environment for afternoon thunderstorm development ahead of an approaching cold front. Uncertainty continues to be below average with the overall coverage of afternoon storms across the area. However, it appears likely (60%+) that at least widely scattered storms will develop in advance of an approaching cold front and mid-level trough after 2 or 3 PM this afternoon. The overall threat for severe weather today is expected to remain low, owing to overall poor mid-level lapse rates. However, stronger mid-level flow (~40 kt at 500mb) is expected in advance of the approaching mid-level trough axis this afternoon, which could result in support for a few more organized storms. Accordingly, we cannot rule out a couple of locally strong wind gusts with some of the storms. Otherwise, aside from lightning, the main threat from any storms this afternoon will be torrential downpours given the high PWAT environment. The threat of storms will wane from northwest to southeast into early this evening with the passage of the front. This should set up another rather quiet night tonight before rain associated with the post tropical remnants of Beryl begin to stream northward into central parts of IL and IN on Tuesday. Guidance continues to support a track into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning, which would result in better chances of rain coming Tuesday night into Wednesday across our far southern areas. See more on this below. KJB Tuesday Night through Sunday: The remnants of the Beryl is expected to move northward into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. Ensembles have sped up and shifted the track of the center of the storm ever so slightly to the south. It is now expected to pass slightly east of St. Louis and follow the Ohio River east of the Mississippi River before heading toward Cleveland. Even though the central core will be south of the forecast area, it will still make for impacts locally, While there is still some uncertainty with how it will phase with the long wave trough to the north, the update to the track has resulted in trimming back PoPs for areas northwest of I-55, while maintaining "likely" PoPs for areas to the south and east. With tropical moisture increasing precipitable water amounts to around 2 inches, 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible for areas well southeast of I-55. It was decided to maintain thunder given models suggesting weak instability present, though it is not expected to be predominant through the time period. The main concern with this system will be the threat for flooding due both in part to the amount of rain expected as well as the potential for continuous rain over the same area. Over the course of Tuesday night through Wednesday, areas from Ford County, Illinois through Porter County, Indiana are under a level 2 out of 4 for excessive rainfall. Winds will turn to the northeast ahead of the system and turn to the north by Wednesday afternoon. While the strongest winds will be associated with the central core of the system to the southeast away from our area, the gradient will tighten and provide wind gusts between 20 to 25 mph on Wednesday. Given the good northerly fetch over the lake and strong winds, there is gaining confidence on Wednesday for developing dangerous swimming conditions. If waves are choppy enough, there is a chance for the conditions to persist into Thursday morning. After the system exits on Thursday, synoptically the long wave trough over the Great Lakes will remain, though gradually weaken through Saturday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the Sierra Nevada. Depending how quickly (or slowly) the trough weakens and lifts to the northeast, there is a slight chance for some showery activity on Thursday. But gradually better high rises and dry air will creep in from the west. Warmer air aloft will slowly move in with deterministic models suggesting 850 mb temperatures could creep into the 20 to locally up to 25 degree range over the weekend. However, ensemble models are suggesting that warmest 850 temperatures will not arrive until late on Sunday. In addition, this pattern of a trough lifting into Canada and a ridge to the west puts more northwesterly flow over northern Illinois. Some of the ensembles have dry conditions through the weekend, while a few develop a larger convective system that could move through and thereby inhibit maximum temperatures. All that being said, warmer temperatures are still expected to move in this weekend with reach at least the low 90s. How warm they get (and their subsequent heat indices) remains `tbd` with so much uncertainty. DK && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period: - Intermittent showers through daybreak - A (~30 percent) chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon lingering into the evening Cloud cover has broken up slightly with SCT/BKN high clouds remaining around the region. There are two areas being monitored with showers/thunderstorms: 1.) In central Iowa and 2.) in central Missouri moving into southern Illinois. As the leading showers from these complexes move into/toward northern Illinois, they are slowly eroding as they move from the better instability. As these systems move east to northeast through the overnight, there is just enough instability to allow for a chance for intermittent showers, but there is low confidence in thunder or major impacts to terminals, so allowed for VCSH to carry through 12Z. If the complexes maintain themselves longer than anticipated, a possible amendment can be made at 09Z. Winds are expected to be less than 10 knots through the TAF period, starting out from the southeast and switching to the southwest Monday morning, though veering slightly more west- southwest into Monday evening. Models have consistently been suggesting the chance for showers and thunder in the afternoon (approx. 30 percent chance). However, each model has been struggling on the exact timing. Severe weather is not expected, but made no changes to the current PROB30 groups that has the cells develop between 18Z and 00Z. A lot may be determined from how much activity actually comes from the current storms in Iowa/Missouri, or if that disturbance reinvigorates chances in the afternoon. DK && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago