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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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950 FXUS63 KLMK 061848 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 248 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry through early next week. Moisture associated with tropical cyclone Beryl look increasingly more likely to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys starting as early as Tuesday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively calm and quiet through the near term. The afternoon cu-field should steadily dissipate as we approach sunset and give way to clear skies. High pressure centered over MO/AR will steadily drift into the Ohio Valley by dawn tomorrow, allowing winds going light to calm overnight. This should result in a pretty optimal radiational cooling setup and lows by sunrise tomorrow will likely fall into the low/mid 60s for many locations. River valley fog is also likely in the typical fog-prone locations. Conditions tomorrow should be very similar to today, with only slightly warmer temperatures anticipated as low-level thicknesses rise. Highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, though with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s that should help to take a slight `edge` off the heat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Low level moisture will begin to steadily return to the region Monday as flow takes on a more southerly component. With the increased moisture, we should see capping in the low levels erode by the afternoon. Without much in the way of a forcing mechanism in place, any convection that does develop will be isolated/scattered in nature. As early as Tuesday, a moisture plume ahead of what is left of tropical cyclone Beryl will advance into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Beryl`s track will be largely influenced by how troughing evolves over the central U.S., but the latest guidance has us under the influence of its moisture through at least Wednesday (or Thursday, depending on the model). Too early to say how much rain may fall given we`re several days out, but the potential for heavy rainfall certainly exists. There are even some synoptic signals for a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) ahead of the main circulation of Beryl which will need to be watched closely. Beryl and its associated moisture should lift out of the region by Thursday or Friday, though we may still stay unsettled at times going into the early weekend as the aforementioned central U.S. trough is slow to move/lift. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Fair weather cumulus with 4-6kft bases has developed this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. Warmer air near 850mb will keep these clouds from having any sort of vertical growth and we should stay dry through the day. Winds will remain out of the west or WNW through the early evening hours. Overnight, skies will clear out and winds will go light to calm as surface high pressure passes nearby. Could see some patchy fog develop toward dawn in our more typical fog-prone sites. Otherwise, any fog that develops tomorrow morning should quickly dissipate shortly after dawn. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...DM AVIATION...DM