337
FXUS63 KLMK 062319
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
719 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry through early next week. Moisture associated with tropical
    cyclone Beryl look increasingly more likely to move into the
    Ohio and Tennessee Valleys starting as early as Tuesday. Heavy
    rainfall will be possible at times through the middle of next
    week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Broad surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively calm and
quiet through the near term. The afternoon cu-field should steadily
dissipate as we approach sunset and give way to clear skies. High
pressure centered over MO/AR will steadily drift into the Ohio
Valley by dawn tomorrow, allowing winds going light to calm
overnight. This should result in a pretty optimal radiational
cooling setup and lows by sunrise tomorrow will likely fall into the
low/mid 60s for many locations. River valley fog is also likely in
the typical fog-prone locations.

Conditions tomorrow should be very similar to today, with only
slightly warmer temperatures anticipated as low-level thicknesses
rise. Highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, though
with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s that should help to take a
slight `edge` off the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Low level moisture will begin to steadily return to the region
Monday as flow takes on a more southerly component. With the
increased moisture, we should see capping in the low levels erode by
the afternoon. Without much in the way of a forcing mechanism in
place, any convection that does develop will be isolated/scattered
in nature.

As early as Tuesday, a moisture plume ahead of what is left of
tropical cyclone Beryl will advance into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Beryl`s track will be largely influenced by how troughing
evolves over the central U.S., but the latest guidance has us under
the influence of its moisture through at least Wednesday (or
Thursday, depending on the model). Too early to say how much rain
may fall given we`re several days out, but the potential for heavy
rainfall certainly exists. There are even some synoptic signals for
a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) ahead of the main
circulation of Beryl which will need to be watched closely.

Beryl and its associated moisture should lift out of the region by
Thursday or Friday, though we may still stay unsettled at times
going into the early weekend as the aforementioned central U.S.
trough is slow to move/lift.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

High pressure across the region will keep light and variable winds
through Sunday. Similar to today, may see some afternoon VFR-level
clouds form. We did dry out some this afternoon, so have backed off
on patchy fog potential at LEX and RGA, but kept it in before
daybreak at BWG and HNB. Otherwise, no concerns.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...RJS