669
FXUS63 KLMK 050548
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
148 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Unsettled weather will continue through Friday with another
    chance of showers/storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts,
    torrential rainfall, and lightning will be the primary
    hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Just cancelled a portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505, as the
line has pushed east of those area. A significant chunk of the watch
remains across portions of central and east central KY through 7 PM
EDT.

Currently a broken line of storms is moving through central
Kentucky. This line is bringing gusty winds, torrential rainfall,
and lightning. There is a non-zero tornado risk associated with this
line as slightly increased low level shear may allow for curling
within the line. A nose of 2500-3000 ML CAPE extends from the mid-
Mississippi Valley into central Kentucky. Best 0-3km shear is over
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky around 30-35kts. Therefore,
the northern half of the line is cold pool driven and the southern
half of the line is more pulse-like and has a higher potential for
microbursts. As this line continues over the Bluegrass, it will
outrun the best forcing and instability and begin to weaken.

Isolated convection outside of the line is still possible through
the evening hours.

In the overnight hours, winds will relax and skies will thin. Patchy
dense fog is possible in areas that received rain today. Low
temperatures in the morning will be in the low-mid 70s.

In the mid-morning, yet another round of showers and storms will be
possible as a weak shortwave moves through the lower Ohio Valley.
Scattered showers and storms will move through central and northern
Kentucky mid morning into the early afternoon. As these showers
reach the Bluegrass in the early afternoon, ample heating and a less
worked over environment will allow for some stronger storms. Main
threats will be gusty winds, lightning, and torrential rainfall.

The cold front associated with the low pressure system over the
great Lakes will move through the region in the afternoon and bring
much drier and cooler weather behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Cooler drier air will in advect in behind the departing cold front
Friday night into the weekend. Noticeably more comfortable dew points
in the low/mid 60s and temperatures near normal will be associated
with a sfc high that works in over the Ohio Valley on Saturday then
pushes east-northeast by Sunday afternoon. Highs will be mainly in
the mid 80s on Saturday with lows down in the low 60s Saturday
Night/Sunday morning. As upper heights increase during the day
Sunday, it will be warmer Sunday with afternoon highs in the upper
80s.

Pattern for early next week will feature strong ridging across the
western US with upper ridging out over the Atlantic. Longwave trough
across the central US will slowly work eastward through the first
half of the week. Current deterministic models show tropical cyclone
Beryl making landfall along the TX/Mexico border sometime Sunday
night early Monday morning. Some of this moisture may get pulled
north-northeast ahead of the approaching trough. Shortwave trough is
anticipated to cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will keep chance of showers and storms in the
forecast (20-30 percent) for most of next week with higher PoPs (40-
60 percent) during the day on Tuesday. Highs for next week will
remain close to seasonable norms in the upper 80s for highs and
mid/upper 60s for lows. The exception looks to be Monday where highs
near 90 are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Conditions are dry early this morning. Firework smoke has
contributed to MVFR vis at SDF since 03Z. Otherwise, some patchy BR
may cause some lower vis at the other terminals through sunrise.
After sunrise, the focus then quickly shifts to convection moving in
from the west. A cluster of scattered TSRA is forecast to spread ENE
across central KY and southern IN between 12-18Z and will likely
bring brief TSRA impacts. Expect lightning and lower visibility in
heavy rain. Gusty winds will also be possible.

After this early day wave of convection, precip will be pretty
spotty this afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through the
region. Sfc winds will veer westerly and increase with the passage
of the cold front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW