219
FXUS63 KLMK 081907
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   The remnants of Beryl will move into the region Tuesday into
    early Wednesday. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms
    will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with heavy
    rainfall, isolated damaging wind gusts, and brief tornadoes
    possible.

*   Warmer temperatures return by late week and continue into the
    weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Warm and muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours as
moisture and clouds associated with Tropical Cyclone Beryl stream
into the region. A few isolated showers/storms could sneak into our
western counties this evening depending on how storms evolve over
western Kentucky this afternoon; otherwise, anticipating quiet and
mostly dry conditions overnight.

By dawn tomorrow, Beryl will be across southern Arkansas and will
continue its jog to the northeast. The best corridor for
moisture/lift will generally be across Arkansas into central Indiana
as Beryl makes its trek toward us, so while widespread rain is not
likely for southern IN and central KY, we do anticipate bands/waves
of rain showers with embedded storms to swing through our region
during the day Tuesday.

12z SPC HREF guidance indicates that we should gradually destabilize
through the day as Beryl approaches, with mean SBCAPE values ranging
from 1,000-2,000 J/KG. Some of the higher-end instability values may
be overestimated as mid/high level clouds will limit surface heating
and also result in poor mid-level lapse rates... but shear/helicity
will gradually increase through the day as Beryl approaches, and
even with marginal amounts of instability we could see storm
organization and the potential for severe weather. Main severe
weather threat will be sporadic damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes within the strongest convection given the elongated,
clockwise looping hodograph. Best window for severe weather across
southern IN and central KY will be from 2pm EDT through midnight EDT.

Hydro concerns aren`t particularly high, but there will be some
localized issues we`ll need to keep an eye on. High freezing levels
and a very moist atmosphere (PWATs >2") will support torrential
downpours in most of the showers and storms. Fortunately, most of
our activity will come in waves and likely be scattered in nature,
so overall duration of heavy rain should be short-lived. The main
thing to watch with tomorrow`s setup is where any storm training
occurs, which should be localized in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...

Remnants of Beryl will move out of the region to the northeast on
Wednesday, bringing all of the more widespread showers and storms
with it. On Wednesday, scattered showers and storms will remain and
taper off through the day. Cooler than normal air will be over the
region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s. With tighter
pressure gradients associated with this system, breezy winds on the
order of 10-12 mph and gusting 20-25mph will prevail through
Wednesday evening. In the overnight hours, the low pressure center
will be over northwest Ohio and precip chances over the lower Ohio
Valley will cease. Skies will clear in the overnight, allowing
temperatures to fall into the low-mid 60s. Given that winds will
persist 5-8mph in the overnight, the fog potential is low. In wind
protected valley areas, we could see some patchy fog development.


Thursday through Early Next Week...

Large scale troughing will remain over the Great Lakes and slowly
weaken as ridging in the western CONUS builds. Weakening troughing
over the region through the weekend will lead to mostly dry
conditions and near normal temperatures. Each day, temperatures will
increase by 1-3 degrees until early next week where we will see
above normal temperatures. Given weak troughing over the region,
couldn`t rule out an afternoon shower or storm as we near convective
temperatures, however, there is no widespread forcing to lend to
organized development of showers and storms. Conditions should lend
to some pleasant summer days until hot and muggy conditions arrive
late weekend / early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions anticipated through most of the forecast period.
Clouds will gradually stream in ahead of Tropical Cyclone Beryl
through tomorrow, though most rain/storm chances will hold off until
right around or just after the end of the forecast period for most
TAF sites. Any site that is impacted by a shower/storm could see
brief reductions to vis/cigs. Winds will remain light through the
forecast period, but pick up out of the south and east tomorrow
after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...DM