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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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126 FXUS63 KLMK 061053 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 653 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly sunny skies, seasonably warm temperatures, and lower humidity expected this weekend * Remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl may affect the Ohio Valley by late week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 This morning, quiet and dry conditions are present across central Kentucky and southern Indiana with scattered high clouds observed over the region on latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Drier air is continuing to work its way from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys behind a low pressure system that is now east of the Appalachians. In the middle and upper levels, upper air analysis reveals broad troughing in between the Rockies and the Appalachians, with this trough helping to push the humid, unstable air mass which has been present over our region for the past few days off to the south and east. Temperatures at this hour range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s, with most locations expected to drop into the 60s before dawn this morning. While some patchy river valley fog will be possible over the next few hours, persistent light westerly winds should keep any fog confined to the deepest valleys. All in all, today looks to be quite nice for early July, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-to-upper 80s expected. As surface high pressure moves from the central Plains toward the mid- Mississippi Valley later today, the pressure gradient will weaken, with westerly winds expected to remain between 5 and 10 mph later today. This low-level westerly flow will help to reinforce the drier air mass overhead, with PW values expected to range from 1-1.25" and dewpoints residing in a more comfortable range in the low-to-mid 60s. Tonight, high pressure will be over the area, allowing for mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. The lower dewpoints will allow temperatures to cool more efficiently, and another morning of lows in the 60s is expected for most on Sunday morning. A few upper 50s will be possible in rural areas and sheltered valleys. Speaking of the valleys, depending on how much mixing of low-level moisture takes place this afternoon, conditions are otherwise favorable for areas of fog Sunday morning. For now, will carry a patchy fog mention in all of the river valleys, though this may need to be augmented depending on low-level moisture trends later today. Otherwise, quiet weather should continue into the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Sunday through Tuesday Night... Dry weather conditions are expected at the beginning of the period as high pressure and a southwest flow aloft persist. Highs on Sunday will average in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Moving into Monday, the day will start off dry, but moisture coming off the Gulf will push into the region from the south. Some isolated convection may fire mainly across southern KY Monday afternoon/evening. Still seeing an inversion in the 850-700 mb layer in soundings on Monday which may end up holding and keeping things a bit drier than what guidance currently suggests. Highs on Monday look to average in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. By Tuesday, an upper level trough axis will push into the region from the north/west. In addition, a deep moisture plume will lift northward into the region associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl. PoPs look to be rather scattered in the afternoon but look to become more widespread Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should be a bit cooler with anticipated clouds and precipitation coming into the region late. Will go with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Wednesday through Friday... Pattern looks to become a bit more active for Wednesday/Thursday as we remain in the deep moisture plume associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl. Large majority of the ensemble guidance shows the remnants passing through the Ohio Valley in the Wed/Thu time frame. Where exactly the heaviest QPF will fall remains to be seen. Not surprisingly, we`re still seeing a bit of spread in the guidance here. The Euro remains on the western side of the guidance envelope with a swath of QPF from NE TX through AR and into W KY and southern IN. The GEM is a bit more east with the axis centered through the LMK CWA. The GFS remains a bit more diffuse and more to the east/southeast. While these differences remain large, we expect a convergence of forecasts over the next several days. Will continue to watch to see if the remnants track right thorugh the region as this could bring excessive rainfall and the threat of some strong/severe storms. For now, will keep highest PoP chances in the Wed/Wed night period with more of climatological PoPs in the Thu/Fri period. Highs on Wednesday look to be in the upper 70s/lower 80s given anticipated clouds/precip. Lows should be in the upper 60s to around 70. Temps look to rebound a bit on Thursday/Friday with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected today as high pressure moves into the region from the west. Cirrus clouds will continue to stream across from SW to NE, with a few 4-6 kft diurnal cu expected to develop for the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will be W/NW at around 6- 10 kt for the afternoon and evening hours before calming after sunset this evening. At this time, there is a low confidence potential for reduced visibilities from fog Sunday morning at all sites except for SDF. The extent to which fog forms tonight will be dependent on how well the boundary layer moisture mixes out this afternoon, although light winds and clear skies with high pressure overhead would suggest otherwise favorable conditions for fog development. For now, will mention fog potential at HNB and RGA where there is the highest (but still low) confidence in development. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CSG