Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
157 FXUS65 KLKN 270827 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 127 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025 * Slow warming trend continues through this week with temperatures rising back above normal levels by the weekend. * Low isolated thunderstorm chances develop Sunday afternoon, lasting through the holiday weekend. * Afternoon breezes pick up for the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) Issued at 123 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025 With a strong upper level ridge building in from the four corners region, the forecast looks to remain dry through Saturday, with warming temperatures through Tuesday. Daytime highs will warm from the middle 80s to mid 90s, up to the low 90s to low 100s by Monday afternoon. Overnight lows will range just cool enough to preclude heat headlines, ranging in the middle 50s to mid 60s. Although will need to watch the salt flats of SE Elko county as west Wendover may remain in the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. Beginning Sunday a weak upper level trough will develop off the California coast, this trough will start to interact with the ridge over the four corners to enhance the mid-level and upper level flow, and re-orient the flow direction to be out of the south to SE. Now if this where August, and the tropical monsoonal moisture over the Gulf of California, and interior Mexico well established, this pattern could bring a good chance at monsoonal thunderstorms for Nevada. Unfortunately, its late June and only meager mid level moisture will be available. So beginning Sunday afternoon, models show a low 10% to 20% chance for some widely isolated thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada lasting through Next weekend. As the lower levels remain very dry, most of the convection will be in the form of build-up to virga/wind producers. If a storm does form, odds favor the storm to be dry, or only produce up to 0.03 of rain. Models have been consistent on keeping this S to SE flow regime in some form through the start of the Independence Day holiday weekend. Which would allow of more moisture to flow north and with additional cloud cover take the edge of the heat, allowing temperatures to cool a bit after Tuesday, with daytime highs falling back into the middle 80s to middle 90s for most. Throughout the period will remain light to breezy, and will be strongest during the afternoons, with the upper pattern winds in the afternoon will be generally out of the S to SW with speeds of 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25mph possible. During the evenings and overnights winds drop to become light and variable. After Thursday, there is a possibility that the upper low will lift into Nevada, this will shift winds to be out of the NE but speeds look light at 5 to 10mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high as models are in very good agreement on the evolution of the upper pattern for the next week. First is the building of the upper level ridge over the four corners region which will lead to the warm up through the week. The second is a upper level trough that will develop off the California coast Sunday which will interact with the ridge to funnel mid level moisture up into the Great Basin that will bring low chances for virga, to a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms beginning next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast to persist through Saturday, breezy SW winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT will be possible for all terminals during the afternoon hours, before weakening to light and variable after sunset. KELY remains AMD NOT SKED due to a malfunctioning VIS sensor at the ASOS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper level ridging and associated elevated fire weather concerns continue across the region. Daytime winds will be in the low teens sustained and gusting up to 25 at times, dying off overnight. Min RH values expected to drop to or below 15% in the afternoons. Additionally, watching some very low chances for isolated mainly dry thunder across the forecast area early next week. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...94