194
FXUS65 KLKN 110341
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
841 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this
weekend under hazy skies from wildfire smoke. A cooling trend is
expected Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, high
temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal for this
time of year.

&&

.UPDATE...Diminishing wind speeds this evening have allowed the
Red Flag Warning to expire at 8PM. No other changes to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 110 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024/

SYNOPSIS...
A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in Eastern Nevada this
afternoon into this evening. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal values this weekend under hazy skies from wildfire smoke.
A cooling trend is expected Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday
afternoon, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees below
normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night
Zonal flow aloft will prevail tonight. A low amplitude ridge of
high pressure will pass across Northern Nevada Sunday. An Eastern
Pacific trough of low pressure will approach the coast of Northern
California Sunday night. A few strong thunderstorms are possible
in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary
thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes. Thunderstorm probabilities this
afternoon into this evening vary from 15 to 25 percent in White
Pine County to 10 to 20 percent in Eastern Elko County.

Westerly wind gusts will increase across Humboldt County and
especially Elko County this afternoon. West wind gusts near 30 mph
are expected in parts of Elko County from 1 PM PDT this afternoon
until 6 PM PDT this evening. There is a 66 percent probability of
west wind gusts of 30 mph or higher in Elko proper this afternoon,
with higher probabilities in the rural areas of Elko County. High
temperatures Sunday afternoon will be around five degrees above
normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday
Ridge centered over the Rockies Monday with upper troffing along
the west coast puts the forecast region under southwesterly flow.
Shortwave moving thru the mean flow Monday afternoon will produce
breezes across the Great Basin with gusts around 30 mph likely.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be present in
and near White Pine County as well as eastern Elko County from
along the US-93 corridor and east. Showers and storms will be
mostly dry, exacerbating fire weather concerns. Though a better
mix of wet and dry is expected for at least White Pine County by
the evening hours. Weather becomes fair for Monday night. Look for
daytime high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s.

Zonal flow is indicated thru mid week with southwesterly flow
building back over the Great Basin the latter portion of the week
in response to a deepening upper trof and closed low along the
coast. Sensible weather wise, shower and thunderstorm activity
will be pushed east as drier air moves in from the west after the
progression of Mondays shortwave. Low probability for activity
right along the Utah border Tuesday afternoon, but anything that
does develop will likely be virga and low topped dry
thunderstorms. Otherwise expect dry conditions thru the end of the
week across the forecast region. Main concern will subsequently
be afternoon breezes with gusts 20 to 30 mph each afternoon,
creating elevated fire weather conditions and caution should be
exercised. Temperatures look to reside generally around average.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms in vicinity of KELY will dissipate thru this
evening, around 03Z, with fair weather under light winds at all
terminals tonight. VFR conditions expected tomorrow with KELY
again observing VCTS in the afternoon. Breezes will be across the
region as well with gusts generally around 20 KTS to 22 KTS. Smoke
from regional wildfires will persist across northern and central
Nevada producing hazy skies, however not expecting VIS to lower
below 6SM at any terminal.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Elko County from 2 PM PDT this
afternoon until 8 PM PDT this evening for west wind gusts near 30
mph and relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected in Humboldt County this
afternoon into this evening due to west wind gusts near 25 mph and
relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. Isolated mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms are anticipated in Southeastern Elko County
and Eastern White Pine County Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Northern and
Central Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening due to south
to southwest wind gusts near 30 mph and relative humidity values
as low as 7 percent.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
Central Elko County...Central Nevada-Toiyabe...Eastern Elko
County...Humboldt County-Quinn...Northern Nye County-Mojave...
Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County...W Elko
County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80...White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.

&&

$$

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