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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
355 FXUS65 KLKN 292125 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 225 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An upper-level trough and cold front will bring a mixture of impacts to the state Sunday including showers and thunderstorms across the northern border along with critical fire weather conditions including gusty winds and low humidity across east-central Nevada. Winds switch out of the northwest Monday with cooler temperatures lingering across the area through Tuesday. High pressure begins to build Tuesday with increasing temperatures and very dry conditions continuing into the latter part of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night An approaching trough from the northwest has increased wind from southwest across the area today. A cold front will begin to move through northwest Nevada tonight ushering in cooler temperatures for Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms with little rainfall (5% or less chance of wetting rains) are expected Sunday afternoon across far northern Nevada. Farther south, increased winds and a very dry air mass will bring critical fire weather conditions to White Pine county Sunday afternoon including gusts to 30-35 mph and single digit daytime RH values after poor overnight recoveries tonight. The cold front will sweep across northwestern Nevada tonight into Sunday, reaching White Pine county late Sunday. Temperatures across the area will only a few degrees cooler along the US-50 corridor but a more noticeable change will be found across northern Nevada where highs will upper 80s to near 90 as opposed to mid 90s today. Lows tonight in the mid 50s and lower 60s will fall further Sunday night into the lower 50s in some locations in northeast Nevada Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate Sunday evening and Sunday night across northeastern Elko county with a prolonged period of dry conditions settling in Monday. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Quiet and dry weather conditions expected to last throughout the week. Northwesterly flow from an associated low pressure system will continue to bring cooler air over the silver state Monday and Tuesday, expected to bring high temperatures into the 70s and 80s (90s for N. Nye County) and lows in the 40s to 50s. The cooling breeze however is expected to end by Wednesday as ensemble models show a high pressure system moving in from the Pacific and over southwestern U.S., bringing in warmer air and remain dry. Temperatures from Wednesday towards the next weekend are expected to gradually get warmer into the 90s, with Saturday highs in the 90s to 100s. Low temperatures also expected to warm but stay in the 50s to 60s each night. Northwesterly breezy winds Monday afternoon at 10-15, gusts 22 mph, followed by light winds Tuesday afternoon below 10 mph. Winds are then expected to kick back up from the northwest again by Wednesday afternoon at 10-15 mph and is expected to elevate to 10-15 mph each afternoon towards the next weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hour period. Breezy southwesterly winds expected to diminish overnight with the exception of KELY expected to have elevated winds at 10-15kts overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions are currently found across central NEvada where a very dry air mass continues to filter into the area. Relative humidity ahas fallen to near 10% in many valleys along and south of US-50 and in eastern Elko county. The low RH combined with increased southwest winds due to an approaching low pressure trough is creating elevated fire weather conditions across east-central Nevada. Conditions will deteriorate across fire weather zone 425 Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A red flag warning is in effect for fire weather zone 425 for Sunday for gusty southwest winds and single digit relative humidity. In addition, a few showers and dry thunderstorms are expected across far northern Nevada in the northern portions of fire weather zones 437, 438, 469 and 470 as the upper-level trough and cold front impact the region. There is a high confidence in little rainfall with gusty outflow winds and some cloud to ground lightning expected Sunday afternoon but it is not expected to be widespread. Only a 5% chance or so of wetting rains exists across far northern Nevada Sunday. Elevated northwest winds will persist into Monday with a warming trend, dry conditions and lighter winds returning Tuesday as a strong high pressure system builds over the region next week. Temperatures generally will be in the lower to mid 90s with some upper 90s in lower valleys by Friday of next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Sunday White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties. && $$ 93/97/97/93