Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
351 FXUS65 KLKN 061008 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 308 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to influence the Great Basin with dry and hot weather persisting. Heat impacts are almost certain as valley temperatures reach or exceed 100F for many locales across the western half of the forecast area this weekend before expanding into eastern Nevada this coming week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night Gradually expanding and strengthening high pressure over the western U.S. keeps weather dry under mostly sunny and clear skies while promoting a warming trend across the forecast area thru next week. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the low 90s to low 100s, generally remaining so for Sunday but with temperatures near or greater than 100 degrees becoming more prevalent across the western half of the forecast area. Heat related Watches and Warnings currently remain valid beginning today, persisting thru the middle of next week. A very dry air mass in place paired with excellent radiational cooling overnight promote 40+ degree diurnal temperature swings, bringing some relief to hot daytime temperatures. Overnight lows reside mostly in the upper 40s to upper 50s tonight and tomorrow night. Northwesterly flow will reside over the forecast area today and tomorrow with an upper disturbance clipping northeast Nevada. This will produce elevated afternoon northwesterly surface winds today and tomorrow with gusts generally 25 to 35 mph. The stronger winds will be focused across Elko County today, but also move into central Nevada tomorrow. Light to calm conditions overnight with local drainage winds dominant. && .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Hot and dry conditions expected to continue throughout the long term as ensemble models show the high pressure system causing this upper ridge heat dome to remain over the southwest U.S. well into the weekend. Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 90s to 100s throughout the region with lows expected to be in the 60s each night with the exception of west Wendover expecting lows in the 70s. Afternoon southerly/southwesterly winds expected to elevate each afternoon at 10-15 mph with stronger southwesterly winds by Saturday at 15-20 mph. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites today. W-NW winds will gust to around 20kts in most locations this afternoon, while well above normal temperatures may produce periods of density altitude concerns. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and a warming temperature trend will continue thru next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. A weak upper level disturbance skirts northeast Nevada this weekend, producing elevated winds. Subsequently, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for fire weather zones 438, 469, and 470 valid from 11 AM PDT this morning until 8 PM PDT this evening for sustained northwest winds 15 to 20 mph, with gusts around 30 mph, and relative humidity less than 15%. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected elsewhere across the forecast area today and tomorrow due to northwesterly afternoon breezes with wind gusts 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity again less than 15%. Hot and dry weather continues next week though lighter winds are expected beginning Monday as the high pressure center moves directly over the region. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening Central Elko County...Eastern Elko County...W Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80. Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 92/97/96/92