Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
002 FXUS65 KLKN 070907 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 207 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Heat dome continues to build across the western US as above normal temperatures for most and triple digit highs for some, as a strong upper level ridge axis drifts over the Sierra Nevada mountains. This Ridge will continue to affect the region through the end of next week as it slowly drifts east. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen over much of the west coast with the ridge axis running parallel to the Sierras. For Nevada this orientation will place much of the silver state under NW flow aloft, but as the ridge drifts closer the wind speeds aloft will continue to weaken, and heights to rise allowing for more subsidence aloft. This means clear skies, lighter winds and above normal temperatures. High for the weekend will reach about 10 to 20 degrees above normal, meaning triple digit heat for many Sunday and Monday with a few record highs facing a serious challenge. Unfortunately, overnight lows with this setup, wont provide enough recovery cooling to mitigate heat stress issues. A excessive heat warning is in effect for Humboldt county currently, with Eureka, Lander, and northern Nye counties being added to the warning later this morning. An excessive heat watch remains in effect for Elko, and White Pine counties as confidence increases in the probability of heat issues early next week. Temperatures will continue to be much above normal, as highs ranging in the mid 90s to mid 100s Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows look to range in the upper 50s to low 70s which wont help with the build up of heat stresses. Winds will be light to breezy in the afternoons out of the WNW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. It is strongly advised to practice heat safety this weekend through next week. Be sure to drink plenty of water, if outdoors limit sun exposure, take frequent breaks inside an air conditioned structure, be sure to check on neighbors/family/friends/pets especially if they dont have air conditioning, and finally be alert to the signs of heat related illness. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday Hot and dry conditions expected to continue throughout the long term as the high pressure system continues to keep the heat dome over the southwestern U.S. leaving high temperatures Tuesday through Saturday to reach into the upper 90s to 100s with overnight temperatures dropping into the 60s (Wendover expected to stay in the upper 70s overnight). Winds expected to be lighter with some afternoon breezes of 10-15 mph from the west. Saturday winds expected to be stronger with south/southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph. Ensemble models are showing increasing confidence that the high pressure system is expected to move towards the four corners by late weekend into next week, which may bring monsoonal patterns for the southwestern U.S., however there is low confidence of the moisture making it to Nevada by that time. Temperatures are showing a cooling trend with highs dropping below 100 degrees across the region, however remain in the 90s while overnight temperatures expected to drop back down into the 50s to mid 60s. Winds expected to be breezy in the afternoon with south/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts of 15 to 25kts are expected over most of the region this afternoon and early evening with lighter terrain-driven drainage winds later this evening and overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the west through the end of next week. This pattern will keep temperatures well above normal with highs in the mid 90s to mid 100s, and will combine with low afternoon RH values of 10 to 15% to keep fire weather concerns elevated for much of the region. Winds will be out of the WNW through the first part of the week as 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. By mid week, wind look to be a mitigating factor as they are forecast to become light and variable as the ridge drift overhead by the start of next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday Humboldt County. Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening Northern Elko County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT Friday Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 98/97/96/98