Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
193 FXUS65 KLKN 040943 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 243 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure over the Great Basin produces a stretch of dry weather and a prolonged warming trend. Heat impacts are almost certain as valley temperatures breach 100F for many locales over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night Region of strong high pressure resides along the California coast this morning with northwesterly flow situated over the forecast area. High pressure lazily meanders east into the western U.S. thru Friday with heights gradually increasing over Nevada. Main sensible weather effects will be dry conditions under mostly sunny and clear skies along with the typical afternoon breezes also present with gust 20 to 30 mph throughout the region. Elevated fire weather condtions will be in place and the proper precautions should be exercised during any Independence Day celebrations. Temperatures will be warm with daytime highs residing in the mid 80s to mid 90s today and overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Friday will see daytime highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows again in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday High pressure and the associated upper level ridge over the west coast of the CONUS will be firmly in place by the start of the forecast period Saturday. The hot, dry air mass will be the status quo through the weekend into the beginning of the work week as temperatures climb across the region prompting Excessive Heat Watch in western and southwestern portions of the CWA Saturday morning through Wednesday morning next week. The heat also has the potential to break triple digit records in some locations across northern Nevada Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will gradually rise across the region through the weekend from upper 90s into the low to mid 100s especially in western and southern counties of the CWA . Ensemble model probabilities are confident in better than an 80% chance of 95F or better for much of the Silver State Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows will provide some relief but gradually warm into the 60s (and low 70s for lower elevations and valleys) through the weekend. Major to extreme HeatRisk values especially in the western and southwestern counties of the CWA are expected through Wednesday even as the ridge begins to push eastward by Monday evening. Model consensus holds the axis of the ridge over the area by Wednesday morning promoting dry southwest flow. This will do little to abate the hot temperatures in the region by the end of forecast period as triple digit high temperatures in some locations will continue through Thursday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Light drainage winds this morning will transition to the northwest around 10 knots across central and northern Nevada under clear skies. A strengthening high pressure area will bring increasing temperatures to many areas leading to increasing density altitude particularly over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and a warming temperature trend present thru the weekend and into next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions will also be present with minimum afternoon RH values residing less than 15% into next week, especially paired with afternoon breezes with a 30-40% probability for wind gusts 25 to 30 mph each afternoon and evening. Winds look to be strongest over this weekend, especially Sunday afternoon, with a 60-70% probability for wind gusts 25 to 30 mph. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday morning Humboldt County...Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 92/99/93/92