051
FXUS65 KLKN 082014
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
114 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Record heat is expected in Winnemucca this afternoon. Near record
heat is anticipated in Tonopah and Eureka this afternoon. Near
record heat is expected across all of Northern and Central Nevada
Tuesday through Thursday. Triple digit heat is likely in Elko
Tuesday afternoon for the first time this calendar year. Excessive
heat should persist into Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night
An area of high pressure over Southern California will move
eastward over Southern Nevada tonight. A ridge of high pressure
will amplify over Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday
night. There is a 55 percent chance of record heat in Winnemucca
Tuesday afternoon. The current record for hottest temperature
measured in Winnemucca on July 9th is 103 degrees, established in
1973 and last observed 2021. There is a 25 percent chance of
record heat in Elko and Ely Tuesday afternoon. The current record
for hottest temperature measured in Elko on July 9th is 103
degrees, set in 1919. The current record for hottest temperature
measured in Ely on July 9th is 98 degrees, set in 2021. Near
record heat is expected in Eureka and Tonopah Tuesday afternoon.
This type of heat will result in a major risk for heat-related
illnesses, especially for those without effective cooling. Take
precautions by staying out of the sun, limiting outdoor
activities, and drinking plenty of water.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday
Strong high pressure and upper-level ridging maintain hot and dry
conditions with above normal, to even record high temperatures
through at least Friday across the Great Basin. Afternoon breezes
from 10-15 mph will be the main source of any appreciable reprieve
as overnight lows even begin climbing closer to even above 60 at
some locations.

Into the weekend, long-range ensemble clusters continue to nudge
the center of the broad surface high and upper-level ridge further
east towards the Four Corners region. This looks to open the door
to more monsoonal moisture, though nothing too substantial at
this point. ENS PWAT anomalies do finally suggest some above
normal atmospheric moisture, with which the NBM appears to be in
agreement in bringing in isolated chances for thunderstorms into
the eastern portion of the state (generally a 20% chance or less),
though some of these could be dry with less than a 10% chance for
24-hour precipitation totals of a tenth of an inch or more. High
temperatures also begin trending slightly lower, though still a
degree or two above seasonal normals through this weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Lighter winds at all
terminals today compared to yesterday, though a few northwest
wind gusts to 20 kt cannot be ruled out (5% chance or less), with
greatest chances around 20% at TNP and 10% at ELY through 12Z
Tuesday morning. Winds ease through the night with a transition to
the east-northeast and south at ELY. Smoke from a wildfire in
northern Humboldt county may result in periods of hazy skies at
KWMC KBAM and KEKO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry is the name of the game this week. Although minimum
relative humidity values will be in the single digits each
afternoon today through Friday, wind gusts will remain below 25
mph. Monsoonal moisture may move northward into Central and
Northern Nevada this weekend, resulting in a possibility of
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday Humboldt County...
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County
and Southern Eureka County.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Friday Northern
Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South
Central Elko County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Friday
Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

87/84/84/87