002
FXUS65 KLKN 070907
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Heat dome continues to build across the western US as
above normal temperatures for most and triple digit highs for
some, as a strong upper level ridge axis drifts over the Sierra
Nevada mountains. This Ridge will continue to affect the region
through the end of next week as it slowly drifts east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday

Upper level ridge will continue to strengthen over much of the
west coast with the ridge axis running parallel to the Sierras.
For Nevada this orientation will place much of the silver state
under NW flow aloft, but as the ridge drifts closer the wind
speeds aloft will continue to weaken, and heights to rise allowing
for more subsidence aloft. This means clear skies, lighter winds
and above normal temperatures. High for the weekend will reach
about 10 to 20 degrees above normal, meaning triple digit heat for
many Sunday and Monday with a few record highs facing a serious
challenge. Unfortunately, overnight lows with this setup, wont
provide enough recovery cooling to mitigate heat stress issues. A
excessive heat warning is in effect for Humboldt county currently,
with Eureka, Lander, and northern Nye counties being added to the
warning later this morning. An excessive heat watch remains in
effect for Elko, and White Pine counties as confidence increases
in the probability of heat issues early next week. Temperatures
will continue to be much above normal, as highs ranging in the mid
90s to mid 100s Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows look to range
in the upper 50s to low 70s which wont help with the build up of
heat stresses. Winds will be light to breezy in the afternoons out
of the WNW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.
It is strongly advised to practice heat safety this weekend
through next week. Be sure to drink plenty of water, if outdoors
limit sun exposure, take frequent breaks inside an air conditioned
structure, be sure to check on neighbors/family/friends/pets
especially if they dont have air conditioning, and finally be
alert to the signs of heat related illness.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday

Hot and dry conditions expected to continue throughout the long
term as the high pressure system continues to keep the heat dome
over the southwestern U.S. leaving high temperatures Tuesday
through Saturday to reach into the upper 90s to 100s with
overnight temperatures dropping into the 60s (Wendover expected to
stay in the upper 70s overnight). Winds expected to be lighter
with some afternoon breezes of 10-15 mph from the west. Saturday
winds expected to be stronger with south/southwesterly winds at
15-20 mph.

Ensemble models are showing increasing confidence that the high
pressure system is expected to move towards the four corners by
late weekend into next week, which may bring monsoonal patterns
for the southwestern U.S., however there is low confidence of the
moisture making it to Nevada by that time. Temperatures are
showing a cooling trend with highs dropping below 100 degrees
across the region, however remain in the 90s while overnight
temperatures expected to drop back down into the 50s to mid 60s.
Winds expected to be breezy in the afternoon with
south/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts of 15 to 25kts
are expected over most of the region this afternoon and early
evening with lighter terrain-driven drainage winds later this
evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue
to strengthen over the west through the end of next week. This
pattern will keep temperatures well above normal with highs in the
mid 90s to mid 100s, and will combine with low afternoon RH values
of 10 to 15% to keep fire weather concerns elevated for much of
the region. Winds will be out of the WNW through the first part of
the week as 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. By mid
week, wind look to be a mitigating factor as they are forecast to
become light and variable as the ridge drift overhead by the start
of next week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday Humboldt County.

Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening
Northern Elko County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern
Elko County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT
Friday Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

&&

$$

98/97/96/98