523
FXUS64 KLIX 080452
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

With the evening CWF update, raised the western 2 marine zones
(GMZ550-570) from Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft
Advisory, as deterministic wind grids have about the western half
of both zones at or above 20 knots, with at least some potential
for waves approaching 7-8 feet. Will run it through 16z for now,
as current wind forecast shows things relaxing a bit by then.

Have also bumped PoPs up a little more to the west of a Baton
Rouge to Houma line with the feeder band of convection that is
riding through the Atchafalaya Basin. While most of it looks
focused on the WFO LCH side of the basin, it`ll need to be
monitored for heavy rain potential until it moves west or
dissipates. Don`t have a lot in the way of ground truth gauges in
that area, but with precipitable water values between 2.0 and 2.25
inches, potential for isolated flash flooding cannot be entirely ruled
out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A broad upper level trough continues to be centered along the
midsection of the country from the Dakotas to Oklahoma...
encompassing all but the western/eastern fringes of the country. As
of 2p, Tropical Storm Beryl isolated in the western Gulf of Mexico,
centered roughly 125 miles east of Brownsville Texas. The storm is
forecast to continue northwestward this afternoon, making landfall
along the Texas coast Monday morning. The CWA is on the outer
periphery of Beryl and subsidence from it has been part of the
suppression of convection so far this afternoon. The other big factor
is dry air wrapping around the eastern side of Beryl. Blended TPW
product from GOES Sat has been showing PW around 1.7" and the KLIX
18Z sounding confirmed that, measuring 1.65". The CAMs continue to
capture lack of precip in the near term vs global models, which the
NBM has been favoring lately. Thus, have trended tonight and Monday
morning POPs closer to those drier members of guidance.

Then, when it comes to heat, going ahead with a heat advisory for
much of the CWA. Left out some SW MS counties and a few adjacent LA
parishes as well as northern halves of the coastal MS counties.
Might be a little too conservative but lower dewpoints should help
limit heat indices somewhat. If surrounding WFO`s do decide to
issue a heat advisory, may have to expand ours to simplify public
messaging.

The biggest thing to watch after this weekend will be isolate areas
of heavy rainfall. As the remnants of Beryl are being absorbed by
the upper trough to the north and track east across the lower
Mississippi Valley. As seen in previous decaying tropical systems
tracking northward, models show the trough dragging a tail of
rainfall along the eastern side of the remnants extending from the
base of the trough/remnant Beryl to well south into the Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. Forecast PW`s in the 2.4-2.6"
aren`t surprising and quite concerning, especially when combined
with ample instability in place. No  way to know where one of these
tropical rain bands lines up but with very efficient precip
processes expected, certainly could see some surprisingly high
streaks of very heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The local area falls into a very typical summertime pattern for the
remainder of the week. The broad upper level trough over the
majority of the country today will shift eastward Thursday.
Strengthening upper ridge in its wake will expand across the Rockies
Friday into this weekend. That still leaves the CWA neither under
high pressure or troughing. Combine that with normal summer daytime
heating and should have scattered to numerous pop-up afternoon
thunderstorms. Should see temps lower closer to normal, which will
be a nice break from very hot conditions lately.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For most terminals, VFR conditions are expected overnight.
However, the band of SHRA/TSRA to the west of KBTR and KHUM has at
least some potential of impacting those terminals overnight. Will
mention VCSH/VCTS there. MVFR ceilings will be possible around or
after sunrise at most terminals. Lots of questions as to moisture
distribution during the daytime hours on Monday, and that will be
the wildcard for whether convection develops, and if so, where.
Will carry VCTS at western terminals for now, but may need to be
added elsewhere.

Also likely to see sustained southeast to south winds of 15 knots
or so for a good bit of the daytime hours on Monday before easing
somewhat. Gusts in excess of 25 knots aren`t out of the question.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A broad upper level trough is centered along the midsection of the
country and encompasses all but the western/eastern fringes of the
country. Also, Tropical Storm Beryl is located in the western Gulf
of Mexico, centered roughly 125 miles east of Brownsville Texas. The
storm is forecast to continue northwestward this afternoon, making
landfall along the Texas coast Monday morning. The overall size and
wind field of Beryl is quite a bit smaller in size compared to
Alberto from June. This has and will limit the extent of stronger
winds locally. Marine obs today have persistently shown generally
light southeasterly with exercise caution speeds only west of the
mouth of the MS river. That should continue to be the case through
Monday. Monday night into Tuesday night, exercise caution conditions
will spread across more of the local area as the remnants of Beryl
eject northward. Beyond that, benign conditions return to the
coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  93  75  90 /  10  60  40 100
BTR  79  97  80  94 /  30  60  60 100
ASD  77  94  79  92 /  10  60  50 100
MSY  80  94  81  92 /  10  60  60 100
GPT  79  92  79  91 /  10  60  60 100
PQL  77  95  79  94 /  10  60  40 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>036-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-570.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME