313
FXUS64 KLIX 081753
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

We will be introducing one new headline and extending others. The
heat advisory will be extended in areal coverage and a coastal flood
advisory will be raised with this package.

Another supressive day expected with heat continuing to be an issue.
The only areas that should escape this will be where cloud cover and
a few sh/ts are able to develop. This may be mainly over coastal
locations. The coastal flood advisory will be for areas outside
levees and will show around 1.5 feet above normal tide levels for
Terrebonne to around 0.5 feet at Plaquemines Parish. These levels
should not cause many issues, but some secondary roads or unpaved
roads outside levees could see some water over them at high tide
times today and Tuesday.

As far as rainfall, we should see some supression again today keep
most sh/ts from developing but the coastal locations may get more
sh/ts than inland locations so have kept the precip numbers higher
in these areas. The wake trough will begin to move east and Beryl
moves NE and this will help bring some heavy rainfall to many areas
starting Tuesday. There will be the potential for waterspouts/land
spouts and gusty winds with these storms as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

After Tuesday, Beryl should be far enough inland that tides should
fall back to normal levels and flooding should not be a problem. The
heat will continue though. The wake trough will also weaken over
time and lay across the northern gulf coast with a diurnal swing in
precip daily. Some nocturnal sh/ts should also get going each
morning as well. The rainfall with these storms will be heavy, so
isolated flooding rain will be possible each day through about
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will persist at all of the terminals through 06z as
a more subsident airmass on the western periphery of an upper
level high remains in control of the area. Winds will be breezy
from the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
through the evening hours. Between 12z and 18z tomorrow, a band of
rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop along the
I-10 corridor, and this could produce periods of IFR and MVFR
visibilities and gusty winds at all of the terminals. &&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Most of the area will have VFR conditions today with exception to
those locations that get TSRA which would cause temporary IFR. Cigs
in MVFR range will begin to move in overnight for most terminals and
chances of TSRA will grow tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Somewhat higher swell from the south will continue to move through
today and with Beryl moving ashore the Texas coast, headlines mainly
for seas will also remain and be extended, but winds will be in the
15 to 20kt range as well. The highest swell will be west of the Miss
River. Swell heights look to be around 3 to 4 ft and will be
additive to the wind waves which should be 3 to 4 ft as well making
for a total seas height of 6 to 7 ft with a few 8 footers thrown in.
These numbers will quickly fall as one moves east. These conditions
will begin to settle during the day Tuesday bringing the area back
to a normal southerly wind flow around 10kt for the remainder of the
week as early as Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  90  72  91 /  50  50  10  30
BTR  79  93  77  94 /  60  60  20  40
ASD  79  92  77  93 /  40  80  50  60
MSY  81  92  79  91 /  50  70  50  60
GPT  80  91  78  92 /  30 100  70  50
PQL  79  93  78  95 /  30 100  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ066>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ550-570.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE