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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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358 FXUS64 KLIX 070830 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 It`s not often that soundings come in with 2.3" PW values and only get isolated development. Supression that caused the stable conditions yesterday are still in tact this morning and should remain that way today. Modeled precip numbers have come more in line with the actual fcast, so there is a little more confidence in using these numbers for today. Eventhough we are not being directly impacted by Beryl, the indirect effects are being felt in the form of better subsidence on its outer periphery, so when the system starts to become better organized then the normal outer subsidence outside the main core of the system becomes stronger as well. Models may take some time to catch up with this, but they seem to be coming in line with this now. Beryl is fcast to come ashore the Texas coast Monday morning which will start the unwinding process of the system and susiquently weakening the subsidence on the outside of the core as well. This should allow for more sh/ts to develop by Monday. All ingredients are still there for heavy rainfall producing storms along with waterspouts/landspouts. Next item will be a heat advisory for today. Dew pt temps at the sfc will still be in the upper 70s to around 80F coupled with temps well into the 90s and thin cirrus should allow enough heating to bring up a heat adivisory for today. But this should remain over areas near and along the interstate 10/12 corridors. The next item will be coastal flooding. Since Beryl will help bring an onshore flow with a strong swell train, this will lead to wave setup along with some piling of water along the shoreline to the west of the Miss River. Levels are not coming in high enough to bring up coastal flood headlines at the moment as we will be moving into a neap tide cycle at the same time. Looking at these levels, there is about a foot of piling along SW Terrebonne Parish at Amerada Pass and this drops to around a quarter of a foot of piling at Port Fourchon. These levels are near but not at or above coastal flood advisory ranges. But they will need to be watched as any strengthening of the onshore flow would cause these levels to be a bit higher. Even if this were to be the case, the numbers would only allow for a coastal flood advisory and not a warning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Beryl should be around the Texarkana region by Tuesday and as usual with any tropical system, it should leave a wake trough behind it which causes an enhancement in the number of sh/ts along this axis. This process occurs very frequently with exiting tropical systems and this one will not be an exception. Not much difference in the attributes with the sh/ts with this troughing as this activity should still be able to produce heavy rainfall and waterspouts/landspouts along with some gusty winds commonly in the 40mph range. Not a lot of difference over the next several days and the fcast will hinge day to day with where this wake trough is located. We use the term "wake trough", not to be comfused with "wake low". A wake trough is simply a weak trough left in the wake of an exiting stronger system and normally carrys the same attributes of the dominant system such as PW values, convective temps, CAPE etc... This trough will help keep a mostly diurnal swing in precip numbers, but it should also be capable of keeping convective temps close enough to the water temps to get at least some morning sh/ts over or near marine areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Most of the area will have VFR conditions today. There should not be many sh/ts around the area but where they do occur, it would be the only areas that IFR conditions would temporarily occur. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Somewhat higher swell from the south will continue to move through today and with Beryl a bit closer to the western waters, there will need to be some headlines mainly for seas, but winds will be in the 15 to 20kt range as well. The highest swell will be west of the Miss River. Swell heights look to be around 3ft and will be additive to the wind waves which should be 3 to 4 ft as well making for a total seas height of 5 to 6 ft with a few 7 footers thrown in. For these reasons, we will bring up only caution headlines for now, but if enough swell can make it into these zones and 7ft is achieved, we may need to move to small craft advisories for these zones. These numbers will quickly fall as one moves east. This should be the case through Monday. These conditions will begin to settle by Tuesday bringing the area back to a normal southerly wind flow around 10kt for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 74 93 75 / 50 20 50 20 BTR 96 79 96 80 / 50 20 70 30 ASD 94 78 94 79 / 30 10 60 40 MSY 94 80 94 81 / 30 10 70 50 GPT 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 50 40 PQL 96 77 95 78 / 20 10 40 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-057-058-060-071-076>087. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE