968
FXUS64 KLIX 040228
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
928 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

ZFP updated due to expiration of today`s heat related
advisory/warning. Hourly temperature and dew point grids were
updated earlier to handle observed trends, but not overnight lows.
Most precipitation has dissipated, but as has been the case
frequently the last few weeks, there`s likely to be additional
showers and/or storms moving off the Gulf into coastal
parishes/counties toward sunrise. Overall, no major changes to
afternoon forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The region continues to bake under a 595dam heat bubble centered
over the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon. Heat Advisory
thresholds were already met by 10am this morning with many
locations exceeding Excessive Heat thresholds in those areas
under the warning. The good news is convection, albeit rather low
coverage has developed in response to the interactions between
lake/sea breezes and a weak surface trough over the region.
Steering for storms is weak, generally only outflow propagation.
This as we have seen lead to slow motion and even some back
building over portions of the southshore leading to some localized
street flooding in and around Metairie. Convection will begin to
decrease with the loss of daytime heating later on this evening
and will likely become more focused right along the coast or just
offshore.

Going into Independence Day, very similar to today with isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected.
Heights/thicknesses are ever so slightly below where they are
today...in terms of heights about 2dam lower, so this may help
just a bit to keep temps a degree or two lower as well. At this
juncture, continued the heat advisory for Thursday with heat index
values still between 108 and 112 respectively with the highest
remaining along and west of the I55 corridor in Louisiana. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Going into late in the week and the upcoming weekend, the upper
level ridge will begin to wither away from the northwest as a
broad upper level trough begins to suppress the H5 ridge to the
south and east. At the surface a weak front will move into the
region...align with the mean upper flow and stall. This will
increase rain chances, but also with heights decreasing, this will
also help with limiting the excessive heat for just a bit. Still
looking a temperatures in the lower 90s, but with more convective
coverage around during peak heating, this should keep us from
maxing out on the afternoon highs.

Looking southward across the western portions of the Caribbean and
far southwest Gulf, Hurricane Beryl...or what`s left of the system
will continue to move around the southern periphery of the
aforementioned H5 ridge (yes, the one that`s kept the oppressive
heat around our area). Both Globals and High Resolution tropical
models alike suggest that this feature will cross the Yucatan
sometime late Friday through the day on Saturday and reemerge
into the Bay of Campeche (weaker naturally due to land
interaction) and then continues to perhaps gradually strength
downstream until it makes landfall along the coast of Tamaulipas,
Mexico or near the Rio Grande Valley. As the aforementioned
trough that weakens the western periphery of the upper level high
continues to dig across the Red River Valley, Beryl should begin
to move slightly more north of due West. However, exact track will
be highly dependent on the intensity of the system. A slightly
stronger system than currently anticipated could be pull more
northward into Texas by having a much deeper steering flow and
feeling the trough`s weakness to the north. Or, if Beryl is weaker
(which after all the shear, dry air, and land interactions seems
like a good bet), the system will have a more shallow steer flow
meaning it would likely continue to feel the western push more
than the poleward pull of the trough. Either/or locally, no direct
impacts anticipated at this time.

With Hurricane Beryl going inland well southwest of our region,
expect the stalled front to provide us with more afternoon shower
and thunderstorm heat relief through the weekend and into the
start of the new workweek next week. Pending some rather
significant temperatures adjustments in the medium range, this
weekend and early next week appear free of any need for heat
headlines. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Most terminals VFR at issuance time, with the exception of KHUM,
which was reporting MVFR conditions with a thunderstorm in the
area. Convection will be dying out in the next hour or two, with
VFR conditions the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will
develop around 14z Thursday as the cumulus field develops.
Isolated SHRA during the morning will likely grow into scattered
TSRA around midday. For now, will use PROB30 for the afternoon
hours, with no confidence of a specific terminal being impacted.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure remains in control across the area and should remain
in place through the remainder of the workweek. This will allow
for mostly benign marine conditions to continue through the
holiday and perhaps into the start of the holiday weekend. That
said, eyes begin to focus across the Yucatan Channel and
eventually across the southwest Gulf/Bay of Campeche where
Hurricane Beryl will track going into the weekend. At this
juncture, only very minimal indirect impacts are expected with
slightly higher seas from a building swell again courtesy of Beryl.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  92  75  92 /  30  60  10  50
BTR  80  95  80  96 /  30  60  10  50
ASD  79  94  79  94 /  30  60  10  50
MSY  80  92  80  94 /  30  60  10  50
GPT  79  91  78  92 /  30  60  10  50
PQL  78  94  78  95 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF