726
FXUS64 KLIX 021925
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
225 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A somewhat drier and more stable airmass is currently moving into
the area, and this will help to greatly limit convective potential
from tonight through Friday night. The drier air is quite evident
with PWATS expected to drop to between the 10th and 25th
percentile for this time of year both Thursday and Friday. This
drier airmass will be the direct result of an upper level ridge
becoming more centered over the central Gulf coast. As sinking air
aloft warms and dries, it will allow for the development of a
mid-level temperature inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet
level. This capping inversion will effectively limit updraft
development, and this will lead to less overall shower and
thunderstorm activity across most of the forecast area each day.
At most, an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm could try to fire
up along the seabreeze boundary where low level convergence is
maximized. With this in mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP
values in place for coastal Louisiana both Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Less cloud cover and the drier air mixing down to the
surface each day will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s.
However, the drier air and lower humidity values will keep
extreme heat at bay with heat index values of 100 to 105 expected
on Thursday and Friday. These values are not uncommon for early
July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Saturday will continue to see the influence of the weak ridging
aloft with continued below average PWATS, slightly warmer
temperatures, and isolated to widely scattered convective activity
confined to the coast where seabreeze boundary interactions will
provide just enough low level forcing to produce some deeper
updrafts. Overall, very similar conditions to those seen on Friday
are expected for Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday will see a more typical Summer pattern
take hold. The upper level ridge will weaken and push away from
the region, and an inverted trough moving with the prevailing
easterly flow in the upper levels will slide in from the eastern
Gulf. As this inverted trough axis moves in, PWATS will rise back
to more average levels near 1.75 inches for the start of the new
workweek. The trough will also provide some additional forcing in
the upper levels and cooler temperatures associated with the low
will allow the mid-level capping inversion to weaken dramatically.
The end result will be an increase in instability with MLCAPE
values climbing back to around 1500 J/KG and greater convective
coverage each day. PoP values of 50 to 70 percent each afternoon
reflect this increased risk for early next week. Temperatures will
also cool slightly into the lower 90s, but the increase in low
level humidity will keep heat index values around 105 degrees each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Scattered convection will continue to briefly impact the terminals
this afternoon. When the thunderstorms move through, brief
reductions in visibility to 3 to 5 miles and ceilings of 2500 to
3000 can be expected. Thunderstorm chances will be significantly
lower tomorrow as a dry and more stable high pressure system
builds in from the north. However, thunderstorm chances at HUM and
MSY are high enough to include as PROB30 group around 18z
tomorrow. Outside of the thunderstorm risk, prevailing VFR
conditions will be in place at all of the terminals through the
period.  PG

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Other than the risk of waterspouts, locally gusty winds over 30
knots, and locally higher waves in relation to scattered
thunderstorm activity each day, conditions across the coastal
waters will remain rather benign. This very typical Summer regime
will keep winds light and seas calm at 2 feet or less. The winds
will be from the north through Saturday, but a shift in winds to
a southerly component will take place by Sunday as the surface
high shifts to the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  72  93 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  77  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
ASD  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
MSY  79  93  80  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  75  93  75  92 /  20  10   0  10
PQL  73  93  72  93 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG