084
FXUS64 KLCH 062343
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
643 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The big question on everyone`s mind is Tropical Storm Beryl so
lets jump right in. Tropical Storm Beryl is currently located in
the central Gulf of Mexico and moving west-northwest around 12 mph
with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Today and tonight, Beryl
is expected to reorganize, reaching hurricane strength sometime Sunday
afternoon in the nearshore waters before making landfall. The
current forecast keeps the main impact of Beryl out of our area
but secondary impacts, like flash flooding, will be felt across
the region. The system is expected to make landfall between
Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime Sunday night or early Monday
morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Even with the recent rightward
shift of the track direct impacts from Beryl remain low for our
area.

Now for the main concerns to southeast Texas, central Louisiana
and southwest Louisiana. The main concerns remain coastal
flooding and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. There
is a Marginal Risk (1/4) for flash flooding today through
Sunday, with a Slight Risk (2/4) on Monday. As Beryl approaches
the coast, moisture transport will become more efficient, with
the GFS showing PWAT amounts that will break the all-time daily
max of 2.42 inches. Ensemble models are not as bullish as the GFS
but still show PWATs around 2.3 inches. Well above the 90th
percentile, but not all time records. Widespread 2 to 6 inches of
rain are expected, with localized amounts over 10 inches
possible. Where the heaviest rain will fall will be primarily
dependent on the track of Beryl. Since there is still plenty of
uncertainty, we can`t stress enough the need to watch the forecast
closely while this storm is still in the Gulf of Mexico.

A storm surge watch is now in effect for parts of the Texas coast
to Sabine Pass. Surge values are expected to be between 2 and 4
feet. East of the Sabine Pass surge, will be between 1 and 3
feet. Mainly during high tides. The coastal flood advisory will
continue for areas east of Sabine Pass.

Overcast skies and high PoPs will continue through the rest of
the weekend with high temperatures in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The long-term forecast will start with the remnants of Beryl west
and north of the forecast area. As Beryl continues to move
inland, it will bend towards the northeast. This will allow the
system to pull more tropical moisture into our area. Because of
this, the flash flooding threat will remain elevated, with a
Slight Risk (2/4) on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall combined with slow
moving storms is a bad combination, especially with the saturated
ground from the previous weekend`s rain. The areas that will
receive the heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact
track of Beryl, which is still uncertain. Overall expect a wet
first part of next week.

By midweek, a frontal boundary will absorb the remains of Beryl
and sweep it off to the northeast. Meanwhile, we will remain under
an unstable and weak flow aloft. The unstable air when combined
with the abundant moisture PWATs > 2 inches, will keep high PoPs
in the forecast. This pattern will continue into the weekend. The
good news about the wet and overcast weather is that temperatures
will be on the lower side, with highs in the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through tonight. Scattered
showers and storms are expected to redevelop Sunday with periods
of lower vis and ceilings possible. Light and VRB winds will
become east to northeast at 5 to 10kts during the late morning
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The main issue is Tropical Storm Beryl, which is currently located
in the central Gulf of Mexico and is tracking west-northwest at 12
mph. Currently, the maximum sustained winds are 52 knots (60 mph).
A Tropical Storm Watch will go into effect for the western coastal
waters this evening at 6 p.m. Tonight will be the last of the weak
onshore flow and lower seas. As Tropical Storm Beryl continues to
track north, towards the Texas coast, conditions will quickly
deteriorate, with seas and winds rapidly building. By Sunday
night, winds will be above 20 knots, with gusts approaching 30
knots. The seas will rapidly build as Beryl approaches, with
maximum wave heights of 10 feet in the western waters. In the
eastern waters, wave heights will be topping out around 7 feet.
These conditions will continue through Wednesday. The period with
these waves will be long, around 10 seconds. Near thunderstorms,
winds and waves will be higher with shorter periods. During this
time, heavy showers and thunderstorms will also be a concern.
Conditions will gradually begin to improve on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  74  92 /  20  50  10  60
LCH  77  91  79  90 /  20  50  30  80
LFT  78  94  79  93 /  40  50  20  70
BPT  77  93  79  89 /  20  50  50  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for LAZ073-074.

TX...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ450-470.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05