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FXUS64 KLCH 072150
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
450 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows Tropical Storm Beryl located near 26.8 North
Latitude, 95.5 West Longitude, or 130 miles SSE of Matagorda,
Texas. Central pressure slowly dropping today, but winds have not
responded as of yet. Still anticipating a more rapid strengthening
this evening and overnight before landfall across the Central
Texas coast before Daybreak Monday. Minor changes to the tropical
storm warnings, now including all of Jefferson, Hardin, Tyler
counties, as well as Sabine Lake. No changes to the coastal
tropical storm warnings which is from Sabine Pass, TX westward.
Storm surge warning for Lower Jefferson county for tides of 3-5
feet MHHW. For Cameron, a Coastal Flood Warning continues for
tides of 1.5-3.0 Feet MHHW. Further east, issued a Coastal Flood
Advisory for water levels near 1.5 feet MHHW across Lower
Vermilion, Lower Iberia, Lower St. Mary parishes through 7 PM
Monday, to match the current warnings end time.

Otherwise, periods of rainbands will continue to advance northward
tonight and Monday. Flood watch includes all of Southeast Texas
now under the Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall
expected to gradually diminish by Tuesday as Beryl moves further
northeast across the ArkLaTex. Still some concern another rainband
could set up Monday night into Tuesday morning across the I-10
corridor which is sometimes typical of these recurving systems.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon, can be expected Wednesday through Saturday as lingering
moisture across the Northern Gulf of Mexico interacts with daytime
heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the lower to
mid 90s expected.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain bands from Beryl will continue to move across the region
through the period. This will cause periods of lower vis and
ceilings with higher wind gusts. Rain may become more widespread
at the end of the period for KLCH and KBPT. Winds will be mostly
east to southeast and highest at KBPT.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight and
move ashore the Central Texas Coast before daybreak Monday. Tropical
storm conditions expected over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass, Texas
and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft Advisories
further east. As Beryl moves ashore and further inland Monday,
winds and seas will gradually subside by Monday night into
Tuesday. Expect elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms to
continue throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  74  90 /  30  70  50  60
LCH  78  88  77  89 /  40  90  70  70
LFT  80  93  79  92 /  40  80  60  80
BPT  80  87  76  92 /  60  90  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ241-252>254.

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ616.

     Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ432-452-455-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...05