![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
238 FXUS64 KLCH 032336 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure ridging into the area from the east, while aloft broad ridging extends from west TX to the Carolinas. Ridging aloft has resulted in warm and humid conditions across the region once again today however, it has not been enough to tamper convection. Area radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across the I-10 corridor, with a few showers further inland. Convection has been ongoing since early this morning, fueled by a mesoscale boundary along the northern Gulf Coast, while this afternoon convection is largely driven by daytime heating. Temperature wise, those areas that have seen rain over the last hour or so are largely in the mid to upper 80s, while elsewhere temps are in the low to mid 90s at this time. As we head into tonight, convection will begin to taper off by about 00-02Z, with warm and muggy conditions again expected overnight. Tomorrow into Friday ridging aloft will begin to gradually break down and shift east, with a general weakness developing aloft. For the 4th of July holiday, a similar pattern to today is expected, with isolated convection near the coast through the early part of the day spreading inland and becoming more scattered in nature through the afternoon hours. Away from convection, another warm and humid day is on tap with highs again expected to top out in the low to mid 90s. The combination of heat and humidity has prompted another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow for interior SE TX, central LA, and lower Acadiana. For Friday, a similar pattern continues however, rainfall and cloud cover look like they may be a bit more widespread in nature, especially through peak heating hours. Therefore, temps may again warm into the low to mid 90s however, heat indices look like they will be held in check (below advisory criteria) for now. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 By the start of the long term period early Saturday, tropical cyclone Beryl is expected to be moving NW across the Bay of Campeche. The official track from NHC continues to indicate a northwesterly path toward NE Mexico or S TX sometime late Sunday or early Monday, and this remains roughly near the mean consensus of model guidance. At this point, any impacts to the local area based on this track would be confined to elevated winds/seas over the coastal zones and minor coastal flooding. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how the forecast track after it moves off the western Yucatan coast and this will be monitored over the coming days. In the meantime, the ridge that has been over the region will continue to weaken and shift east off the SE coast by this weekend, with the weakness aloft to prevail for the next several days. The passage of shortwaves within a Midwestern trough will help to bring a weak front toward the area by Saturday, with the boundary becoming stalled over the region. The combination of the low level focus provided by the boundary, limited capping and copious moisture (with PWATs around or above 2 inches) will support development of scattered to numerous showers and storms on a daily basis through the period. The good news is that the increase in cloud cover and showers will keep daytime high temps mainly in the lower 90s (or possibly lower depending on how widespread showers become). The only exceptions could be Sunday and Monday when slightly less shower coverage could help temps warm back into the middle 90s across portions of central and south central LA. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A few left over showers may occur near a terminal until sunset or 04/02z. Then mainly stable conditions with VFR. With light winds and just high level clouds, any terminals that received rain will have the potential for ground fog with a brief period of MVFR conditions, with KLCH having the best potential for that to occur. More high moisture to combine with daytime heating to allow for a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by late morning into the afternoon and will have VCTS at terminals to account for this. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure aloft will begin to weaken overhead tomorrow and Friday, allowing for the return of normal diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered tomorrow, but may become more widespread over the weekend as ridging overhead fully breaks down. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 95 76 96 / 20 40 10 50 LCH 79 91 79 93 / 10 60 0 50 LFT 79 94 78 95 / 10 70 10 60 BPT 79 94 78 96 / 10 30 0 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-032-033- 044-045-055-152-153. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>029-033- 044-045-055-152>154-252-253. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-259- 260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...07