![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
798 FXUS64 KLCH 042027 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 327 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A rather typical summer day has unfolded across the region on this Fourth of July, as high pressure continues to break down overhead. Area radar has been fairly active across south-central LA since early this morning, while the remainder of the region has seen little more than a stray shower or two today. As a result of better cloud cover/precip, temps currently sit in the mid 80s across lower Acadiana, while elsewhere temps are in the low to mid 90s. Shower activity will gradually come to an end as we near 00Z this evening, with dry weather expected as we head into tonight, just in time for any fireworks shows. Tomorrow, upper ridging weakens further while at the surface a cold front is progged to slide south across the Ark-La-Tex through the morning hours, making its way to near CENLA before stalling. The combination of an increasing weakness aloft, the approaching boundary, as well as daytime heating will result in another day of scattered to possibly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Although this front is not expected to make it into the CWA tomorrow it will provide additional support for convection, especially through peak heating hours. It is also worth noting that guidance has been fairly persistent in keeping at least some scattered convection overhead beyond sunset tomorrow, with some activity possibly lingering until midnight. With better rain chances/cloud cover it`ll still be hot tomorrow, but heat advisory conditions are not anticipated. Still, highs will likely top out around the low to mid 90s. Moving into the weekend, some guidance has been wanting to move what remains of the cold front into the CWA at least briefly, with NBM on board as well. This will result in another day of scattered to widespread convection area-wide, along with highs *only* topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. So although it doesn`t look like it`ll be a great start to the weekend for any outdoor summer activities, it does look like we may see at least a slight reprieve from the repressive heat. In addition, we will have to keep an eye on rainfall totals, with WPC outlining the majority of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall both tomorrow and Saturday. Widespread flooding issues are not a concern however, areas that see heavy downpours several days in a row could see some localized flooding issues. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 By Sunday morning, tropical cyclone Beryl is expected to be making its way toward the NE coast of Mexico, with the official track from NHC remaining consistent on a potential landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande early Monday morning. There is still quite a bit of spread in model guidance, but the NHC forecast has stayed very close to the mean of the consensus with little variance over the past few days which lends a little more confidence to recent forecasts. That said, the track will depend on how much weakening occurs, with the system dealing with shear over the western Caribbean today and ultimately the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow, and this will continue to be monitored. Either way, expected impacts to the local area early next week continue to be increasing seas as swells from the system propagate toward the NW Gulf of Mexico, along with elevated winds over the coastal zones as well as minor coastal flooding. In the meantime, the area will remain in pattern of daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the long term period. A weakness aloft will persist with ridging to the east and a trough over the midwest. Weak shortwaves translating over the region, along with minimal capping, copious moisture and lingering mesoscale boundaries will combine to support at least scattered showers and storms across the area Sunday and Monday afternoons. A surge of deeper tropical moisture on the east to northeast flank of Beryl`s remnants will spread over the area on Tuesday, with showers and storms becoming widespread. PWATs in excess of 2.3 inches will facilitate the potential for very heavy rainfall, with area average rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches possible from Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances will begin to trend downward slightly toward the end of the week as ridging aloft begins to build west along the Gulf coast. The increase in clouds and showers should temper daytime heat, with highs close to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday. Better coverage of showers from Tuesday into midweek should keep daytime temps near or possibly a little below normal, with highs around 90 each afternoon. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will continue through sunset this evening, with the best coverage/rain chances expected over Acadiana (ARA/LFT). Like yesterday, most of this precip shouldn`t be cause for concern but a shower or storm moving across the terminals will be capable of briefly reducing VIS at times. Otherwise, light winds and VFR ceilings continue through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure aloft will continue to weaken overhead tomorrow, allowing for another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered tomorrow, but may become more widespread over the weekend as ridging overhead fully breaks down. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the next couple of days. Winds and seas will begin to increase by Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 77 95 74 91 / 10 70 50 60 LCH 79 93 77 91 / 10 50 30 70 LFT 79 95 78 93 / 20 70 40 70 BPT 79 95 77 94 / 10 30 30 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044- 045-055-152>154-252-253. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259-260. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...17