968
FXUS64 KLCH 020904
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
404 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

You wouldn`t think a difference of 1 or 2 degree dewpoints would
feel all that different... this morning KLCH ASOS is reporting a Td
of 76F, down 2 degrees from the last several mornings, and
honestly it doesn`t feel as heavy or as humid outdoors.

Folks heading out the door this morning will also wake up to
dewpoints feeling *slightly* cooler than in days previous. Forward
your thanks to a very weak "cold" frontal boundary that moved
down through the region yesterday. Unfortunately hot, humid and
stormy weather all return today for an encore performance as
surface high pressure starts ridging across the northern GoM.
Southerly winds in association with the high should pull ashore a
weak easterly wave with showers, thunderstorms and humidity all to
follow.

Another similar wave should move across the region on Wednesday
with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected.

The 00z RAOB reported a PWAT of 2.31 inches with forecast models
indicating values 2.50 to 2.90 inches moving inland with these
waves today and tomorrow. These values are far more than plenty
for very efficient warm rain processes to be in effect with
convection. Not anticipating a widespread flash flooding concern,
but showers may produce rain rates which could cause rapid low-
lying area or urban flooding in vulnerable locations. Guidance
also has deep CAPE profiles in place each afternoon. While the
environment is not favorable for severe thunderstorms, a few
isolated instances of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent
lightning will be possible this afternoon and Wednesday.

Surface high ridge expands westward to southeast Louisiana on
Thursday, ultimately shutting off wave action from the Gulf. This
should allow for a semi-normal day of more-typical diurnally
driven and scattered afternoon convection. Convection should come
to an end with sundown allowing for holiday celebrations to
commence. Any stronger storms could linger an hour or two after
sundown, but these should be fairly limited in nature.

Temperatures today will be the hottest of the short term period.
Daytime high temps should top out in the mid to upper 90s across
the entire forecast area with those north of I-10 potentially
seeing 99 to 100F today. Combined with humidity, heat indices will
rocket into the 100s quickly after sunrise. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for coastal Texas and extreme southwest Louisiana with HIs
up to 111F possible; inland Texas, central Louisiana and zones
along the Atchafalaya are in an Excessive Heat Warning for HIs
upwards of 116F. Areas where moisture pools along the surface will
see those much higher real-feel values.

Anyone who is outdoors today should heed heat precautions
closely. Check on neighbors, vulnerable groups, and outdoor
animals, take frequent breaks if outdoors, don`t leave children
unattended in vehicles, and know the signs of heat stress in the
body.

Rain chances should keep temperatures in check Wednesday and
Thursday. While temps will warm in to the 90s each day, confidence
of hitting Heat Advisory criteria is low. An Advisory will be
issued as needed.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The long term begins Friday with the area beginning to see the
influence of a digging trof over the center of the country, with the
previously prevailing ridge significantly weakened along the Gulf
Coast. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is forecast to remain centered
over the ern Gulf, maintaining a srly low-level flow across the
region...although it must be noted that a weak sfc front is progged
to be approaching the region from the north. With forecast soundings
showing decent moisture (mean RH values again around 60 percent and
PWAT values upwards of 2.1 inches), we should once again see diurnal
convection break out with heating, fueled along by developing
mesoscale features. As seems to be the norm these days, highest rain
chances linger over the sern zones/Atchafalaya Basin where the best
moisture is progged.

The cntl CONUS trof and the approaching frontal feature look to
combine with the persistent good moisture to lead to a higher
coverage in showers/storms for Saturday.

Latest guidance has been showing a more nwd trend with the eventual
track of TC Beryl, with the GFS now showing a landfall along the
lower TX coast with a recurve nwd along the TX cstl plain into
Monday. Likewise, the GFS ensemble members have also shown quite the
right turn in their eventual tracks over the past 24 hours. However
the latest NHC track lies more in the center of the guidance
envelope, albeit still with a rightward adjustment from this time
yesterday. Stay tuned.

Forecast highs in the long term continue to run in the lower/mid 90s
each day. Peak heat index values generally look to stay below
advisory criteria at this time.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Earlier convection has all diminished and with stable conditions,
expect VFR through the night with light and variable winds to go
along with high level cloudiness.

With daytime, another chance for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon after 02/19z. Best
chance for the convection looks to be near the Atchafalaya Basin
and south central Louisiana. Therefore, have PROB30 groups for
KARA/KLFT to account for this.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light offshore winds will turn onshore again this morning as high
pressure begins ridging across the northeast GoM, washing
northward the boundary previous placed over coastal waters. A
series of weak easterly waves moving from south to north into
south Louisiana will bring about scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Weakness aloft is established
Thursday and beyond allowing for the return of normal diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms.

Fairly light southerly flow and low seas will prevail until the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  99  77  96  75 /  10   0  40   0
LCH  95  80  91  79 /  40  10  60  10
LFT  98  80  93  79 /  50  10  80  10
BPT  96  79  94  79 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252>254.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ030>032-073-074-141>143-241>243.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ180-259-260.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ201-261-262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07