092
FXUS64 KLCH 031714
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A mesoscale boundary along the northern Gulf Coast has induced
showers and thunderstorms across mainly the southern parts of the
CWA over the last few hours. Therefore, the main grid update this
morning was to tweak hourly POPs to account for this activity
through the next few hours. Still looks like we`ll see an increase
in activity by the afternoon hours as well, with most of this
activity expected to remain across roughly the southern half of
the region. Otherwise, the forecast is on track this morning.

17

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers have started to develop over coastal waters which will
start moving inland in the coming hours. These nocturnal showers
preceded a weak easterly wave which is expected to move onshore in
eastern Louisiana today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should spread inland and across much of the area today. Deep
tropical-like moisture will accompany convection allowing for
efficient warm rainfall processes to take place and thus very
heavy downpours. With some stronger storms, gusty winds will be
possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Weakness aloft takes place Thursday allowing for a return of
typical diurnal convection.

Friday, expect afternoon showers and storms, but with an added
boundary moving down towards the region from the north. This
feature may drive rain chances to continue into the overnight
hours.

Temperatures today, Thursday and Friday should generally be held
in check by area rainfall. Highs along the coast will hover in the
low 90s each day while those further inland warm into the mid to
upper 90s. Although daytime temps won`t be as warm as they have
been, afternoon Heat Indices will make a run into the low 100s to
around 109F today (especially in northern zones and along the
Atchafalaya Basin.) Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect for these
areas today.

Another Heat Advisory is in place for the Holiday Thursday. This
Advisory spans from inland Southeast Texas into central Louisiana.
Elsewhere, rainfall should keep Heat Indices from reaching
criteria.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The long term begins Saturday with the area under the influence of
troffing over the center of the country while at the sfc, high
pressure is forecast to remain centered over the nern Gulf,
maintaining a srly low-level flow across the region. In addition, a
weak sfc front is progged to be stalling to our north across the
ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions. The combo of the limited capping, weak
influence of the sfc boundary and good Gulf moisture (mean RH values
again have increase to exceeding 70 percent and PWAT values now peak
at 2.3 inches) is expected to lead to widespread showers/storms
during the daytime. Blended guidance is advertising highest POPs
once again over our sern zones, although the highest QPFs are being
carried across the nrn 1/2 of the area...and with this in mind, WPC
has highlighted the nrn zones in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Saturday.

Sunday looks largely like a repeat, although with the frontal
boundary likely to lift back nwd somewhat, rain chances drop back a
tick to account.

The latest forecast track for TC Beryl from NHC calls for the system
to make landfall along the far nrn Mexican coast not too far south
of KBRO late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Following this, much
of the guidance takes the core of the system nnwwd further into TX.
With a deep serly flow now progged to set up over the wrn Gulf and
into the Gulf West region, rain chances over the forecast area begin
increasing again to start the new work week. This increasingly wet
trends continues into the Tuesday as what`s left of the system
begins to meander around to our west while a 2ry surge of moisture
is progged to encroach the region. It is important to note that
confidence remains somewhat low in the eventual path of Beryl and
that changes to the forecast track over the coming days are
likely...stay tuned.

The good news in the long term is that with all the cloud
cover/rainfall being forecast, temperatures are not looking to run
as warm as during the days prior. Forecast highs generally top out
in the lower 90s each day. Peak heat index values generally look to
stay below advisory criteria at this time.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon, before tapering off post-sunset.
Although most of this activity shouldn`t be an issue, an
occasional heavy downpour capable of briefly reducing VIS will be
possible, especially for the I-10 terminals. Tonight, light winds
and high clouds are expected, along with potentially some very
light patchy fog/mist through the early morning hours. Post-
sunrise tomorrow, light winds and VFR ceilings continue.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Nocturnal showers have started developing over coastal waters.
This trend will continue through the morning as a weak easterly
wave moves inland on the Louisiana coastline. A widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected with heavy
downpours, gusty winds and lightning in and near thunderstorms.

Weakness aloft is established Thursday and beyond allowing for
the return of normal diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
prevail through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas
will begin to increase late Saturday into Sunday as a pressure
gradient begins to tighten over the coastal region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  95  76  96 /  10  30  10  50
LCH  80  91  78  93 /  10  50   0  50
LFT  80  94  78  95 /  10  60   0  60
BPT  79  94  78  95 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-032-033-
     044-045-055-152-153.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>029.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259-260.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-259-
     260.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17