Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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805 FXUS64 KLCH 072351 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 651 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Wx map shows Tropical Storm Beryl located near 26.8 North Latitude, 95.5 West Longitude, or 130 miles SSE of Matagorda, Texas. Central pressure slowly dropping today, but winds have not responded as of yet. Still anticipating a more rapid strengthening this evening and overnight before landfall across the Central Texas coast before Daybreak Monday. Minor changes to the tropical storm warnings, now including all of Jefferson, Hardin, Tyler counties, as well as Sabine Lake. No changes to the coastal tropical storm warnings which is from Sabine Pass, TX westward. Storm surge warning for Lower Jefferson county for tides of 3-5 feet MHHW. For Cameron, a Coastal Flood Warning continues for tides of 1.5-3.0 Feet MHHW. Further east, issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for water levels near 1.5 feet MHHW across Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia, Lower St. Mary parishes through 7 PM Monday, to match the current warnings end time. Otherwise, periods of rainbands will continue to advance northward tonight and Monday. Flood watch includes all of Southeast Texas now under the Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall expected to gradually diminish by Tuesday as Beryl moves further northeast across the ArkLaTex. Still some concern another rainband could set up Monday night into Tuesday morning across the I-10 corridor which is sometimes typical of these recurving systems. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, can be expected Wednesday through Saturday as lingering moisture across the Northern Gulf of Mexico interacts with daytime heating. Lows in the lower to mid 70s, and highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Forecast for the terminals will depend on the what goes on with the track and structure of Beryl. Initial rain band that has move inland is expected to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. That will leave occasional showers to move inland during the night, especially for KBPT and KLCH. On Monday, winds are expected to increase around daybreak, especially for KBPT, where wind gusts to around 40 knots are expected along with persistent shower activity. Wind gusts will be lower for terminals to the east and northeast. There is the potential for significant rainbands moving away from the center of Beryl to affect terminals during the afternoon hours on Monday. Rua && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight and move ashore the Central Texas Coast before daybreak Monday. Tropical storm conditions expected over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass, Texas and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft Advisories further east. As Beryl moves ashore and further inland Monday, winds and seas will gradually subside by Monday night into Tuesday. Expect elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 92 73 91 / 30 60 60 40 LCH 78 87 76 90 / 60 80 70 60 LFT 78 92 78 92 / 30 70 60 80 BPT 78 86 75 91 / 70 90 70 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ241-252>254. TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ616. Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ432-452-455- 472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...07