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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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246 FXUS63 KLBF 041741 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Lingering thunderstorms this morning *Below normal temperatures today, for July 4th holiday *Chance of severe weather on Saturday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Thunderstorms will continue to linger through the early morning hours behind the cold front, which continues to advance across the state. Storms are expected to be elevated through the early morning hours with the main hazard being hail. There remains some uncertainty as to how favorable the environment will be for storms to become severe, thus expect most to stay sub-severe, although there could be some upscale growth in north central Nebraska, where the greatest threat for the strongest storms exist. CAPE values across north central Nebraska will be marginal at best this morning and lapse rates are poor, thus there is greater confidence in storms staying non severe. Expect thunderstorms to be out of the forecast area by mid-morning. After storms exit this morning, the rest of the holiday is expected to remain dry with only very slight chances for an isolated thunderstorms across far northern Nebraska, generally along the NE/SD border. As for high temperatures for the July 4th holiday, highs will be cooler than normal with temps in the low 70s north of HWY 92 and in the upper 70s south of there. This is around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A disturbance will move across the area on Saturday, bringing the potential for thunderstorms across the area, some of which could be strong to severe. There will be some marginal moisture return to the area, generally east of HWY 61 looks to have the best moisture, but moisture will be limited nonetheless. CAPE values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with marginal 0 to 6km shear. A cold front will move through late Saturday into Sunday and cool temperatures for Sunday, with highs only in the 70s. An upper level ridge then begins to from in the Western CONUS and will slowly build east. Temperatures across the western portion of the forecast area will see the affects of the ridge with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by Wed. and Thu. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected across the region through today. Developing cumulus clouds with a few isolated showers and general thunderstorms may approach VTN/GRN this afternoon, but confidence in direct impacts bringing degraded flight rules is low at this time. Expect clouds to diminish with loss of daytime heating this evening leaving the latter half of the forecast period predominantly clear with light westerly winds. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...NMJ