025
FXUS63 KLBF 051804
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
104 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible early Saturday afternoon through
  early Saturday evening. The hazards are large hail, wind
  damage and locally heavy rainfall which could cause flooding
  in some areas.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday but
  the risk of severe weather is low.

- There are little or no rain chances Monday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Satellite and radar show a weak UA disturbance across ern WY and wrn
Nebraska this morning. The disturbance is the result of midlevel
frontogenesis embedded in strong northwest flow. This disturbance
will move southeast through swrn Nebraska this morning and early
this afternoon producing light showers and isolated thunderstorms.
POPs use the short term model blend plus the RAP, HRRR, NAM, GEMreg
and HREF. They are limited to 30 percent and the reason for this is
dry air below 700mb. Winds aloft at h500-300mb are very strong, 40-
60kts, and this will greatly limit vertical development given the
PWAT less than an inch.

Attention is drawn to the prospect of severe weather advertised by
the models Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Winds aloft will
be strong, 30-50kts at h500-300mb and moisture will be on the
increase with PWAT increasing to 1.0-1.25 inches. Wind speeds at
h700mb and below will be 20kts or less and the resultant hodograph
is fairly straight suggesting storm splitting will occur. The weak
low level winds also support low tornado potential. Per SPC
outlook, it is less than 2 percent for this event.

The 15 percent significant hail outlook by the SPC is probably
warranted given the strong shear and cold air aloft, -12C at 500mb.
PWAT of 1.50 inches or higher is more common with July hail storms
but that`s for baseball size hail.

The timeline is early afternoon through early evening. The trigger
is an upper low across srn Alberta which will drop south into ND and
steepen lapse rates across Nebraska. The focus is a warm front
across srn Nebraska. It is in this area the WPC outlooked for a
marginal excessive rainfall risk contingent on upscale growth which
is possible Saturday night. The warm front will try and lift north
and moisture transport will be on the increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The upper low across Alberta will move into ND Saturday and be
followed by a second reinforcing disturbance Sunday. The result
will be additional height falls across Nebraska and the models
show a second and perhaps a third round of showers and thunderstorms
which could last into Sunday evening. This rain activity will
develop in a cool moist environment but remain post-frontal. A
cold front will be moving through the srn Plains.

After Sunday, northwest flow continues but drier air will move in
aloft. There are no significant rain chances Monday through
Thursday in the blended forecast solution. There are several
reasons for this. Winds aloft will become weak, less than 20
kts at h500mb, warmer air will move in aloft and the low level
focus will be north or south of Nebraska. Still the northwest
flow aloft will carry disturbances south and provide upper level
support. The GFS and ECM one such disturbance will pass through
Nebraska Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024


Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected through Saturday
morning. Some isolated showers are possible across the region
tonight, however, confidence remains too low in timing, development,
and location to put it into the prevailing forecast at this time.
Ceilings will begin to lower by mid morning in advance of the next
frontal system which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik