189
FXUS63 KLBF 082008
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will range as much as 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal in the 90s to low 100s Friday through Monday, with
  increasing heat concerns across western and north central
  Nebraska.

- While dry conditions are also expected much of the next 7
  days, opportunities for at least isolated storm development is
  possible Friday and Monday.

- Fire weather concerns may increase into the weekend as well,
  as very warm, dry, and potentially breezy conditions develop,
  especially across the western Sandhills into portions of
  southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently, scattered to broken coverage of cumulus clouds have
developed across the area. Temperatures at 3pm CDT, ranged from
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds were light northerly to light
and variable, with surface high pressure centered over the mid
Missouri Valley.

For tonight, the remnants of hurricane Beryl will track from
northeast Texas into Arkansas. Weak surface high pressure will
remain settled over Nebraska, with skies becoming mostly clear.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s.

Tuesday, a strong upper ridge will remain centered over Nevada
with the upper ridge axis extending north through Alberta,
Canada. northwest flow aloft will persist across western
Nebraska. Cumulus clouds will again develop late morning and
continue through the afternoon. A few isolated showers could
develop across southwest into central Nebraska, however most of
the CAMs are dry, so a dry forecast is expected. With weak upper
ridging, high temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer
than today and range from 86 to 91 degrees. Another day of light
and variable winds.

Tuesday night, an upper disturbance on the western periphery of
the main upper trough over the Great Lakes will drop south over
the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. This may trigger a
a few showers or thunderstorms across the east. Will keep the
forecast dry attm, as most models not initiating any
convection. Low mainly in the upper 50s.

Additionally, will have to monitor the potential for elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns as the heat builds into the
area. This will send humidity values falling to near critical
levels, across the far western Sandhills and portions of
southwest Nebraska. With recent rainfall and very green
conditions, fuels should be very limited.

Breezy winds may accompany the warm and dry conditions at
times. Will have to monitor the progression of fuels over the
next several days as the warm and dry pattern sets into the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

On Wednesday, upper height rises build across the Northern and
Central Plains. An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
back into Iowa will limit highs to 85 to the low 90s. wind will
become light northwest in the afternoon.

Hot temperatures will move into the western Sandhills and
southwest on Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s.
Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the region
Friday through Sunday. High reach the 90s, with upper 90s to
near 100 across the west and southwest Friday and Saturday.
Sunday remains the hottest day across the area. The ECMWF EFI
shift of tails exceeds 0.7 for Max T. Forecast highs in the
upper 90s to low 100s. An upper trough will drop through the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Monday. This will push
a weak cold front southward and lessen the heat with low to mid
90s nctrl while near 100 holds on across the southwest. A slight
chance of showers/storms western Sandhills in the afternoon.
Also a slight chance for storms Friday evening western
Sandhills, although the location remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will persist across western and north central
Nebraska the next 24 hours. At KLBF and KVTN, FEW-SCT080 this
afternoon, followed by FEW250 01Z/09th through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg