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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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219 FXUS63 KLBF 041122 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... *Lingering thunderstorms this morning *Below normal temperatures today, for July 4th holiday *Chance of severe weather on Saturday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Thunderstorms will continue to linger through the early morning hours behind the cold front, which continues to advance across the state. Storms are expected to be elevated through the early morning hours with the main hazard being hail. There remains some uncertainty as to how favorable the environment will be for storms to become severe, thus expect most to stay sub-severe, although there could be some upscale growth in north central Nebraska, where the greatest threat for the strongest storms exist. CAPE values across north central Nebraska will be marginal at best this morning and lapse rates are poor, thus there is greater confidence in storms staying non severe. Expect thunderstorms to be out of the forecast area by mid-morning. After storms exit this morning, the rest of the holiday is expected to remain dry with only very slight chances for an isolated thunderstorms across far northern Nebraska, generally along the NE/SD border. As for high temperatures for the July 4th holiday, highs will be cooler than normal with temps in the low 70s north of HWY 92 and in the upper 70s south of there. This is around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A disturbance will move across the area on Saturday, bringing the potential for thunderstorms across the area, some of which could be strong to severe. There will be some marginal moisture return to the area, generally east of HWY 61 looks to have the best moisture, but moisture will be limited nonetheless. CAPE values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg with marginal 0 to 6km shear. A cold front will move through late Saturday into Sunday and cool temperatures for Sunday, with highs only in the 70s. An upper level ridge then begins to from in the Western CONUS and will slowly build east. Temperatures across the western portion of the forecast area will see the affects of the ridge with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by Wed. and Thu. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Radar suggests showers and isolated thunderstorms will move swiftly through cntl Nebraska this morning but satellite indicates the potential for redevelopment as far west as highway 83. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across ncntl Nebraska this afternoon and early this evening. Satellite also indicates what could be sporadic MVFR ceilings across nrn Nebraska this morning. These low ceilings, if they exist, would likely mix out to VFR by mid to late morning. There are no other flight concerns. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...CDC