908
FXUS63 KLBF 042032
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
332 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon across northern Nebraska, with no severe weather
  expected.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Saturday
  for most of western and north central Nebraska.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal averages through early
  next week, before a return to warmer temperatures mid week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery place a trough over the
Northern and Central Plains, with a trough axis through western
Nebraska into Colorado. At the surface, a low pressure system is
located over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota, with a
cold front through western Iowa and southeast Nebraska. This low is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota, with additional isolated showers over
the western Dakotas into northern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

In vicinity of the low over South Dakota, wrap around precipitation
will continue to push into northern Nebraska the rest of this
afternoon and early evening. With relatively weak forcing,
precipitation should mostly fall as light showers, though a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The low will continue its
trek to the east-northeast and as it moves out of the area, showers
should cease during the evening. Afterwards, a quiet night is
expected, with temperatures into the 50s for most of the region,
though some areas of northwest Nebraska may get a bit cooler, into
the upper 40s.

For Friday, temperatures will remain below seasonal in the post cold
frontal environment, with widespread temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. For reference, the average daily high temperature for
western Nebraska in July is 90 degrees. For the most part, Friday
should be dry for most of the region, though a few showers could be
possible across portions of northern Nebraska. Latest guidance was
not overly optimistic on precipitation chances and remained on the
drier side. The forecast follows along with this drier guidance, so
have limited chances of precipitation to a brief potential of
showers across northern Nebraska Friday afternoon, and have left the
mention out for the rest of the afternoon and evening. If the
precipitation gets a bit more robust than scattered showers, this
could potentially be bumped up a bit in the next forecast
cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Saturday brings the next potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather. The upper
level flow will continue to slowly track eastward, and should mostly
still be in place over the western United States on Saturday. An
upper level disturbance is projected to move through the upper level
flow across the Northern Plains, which may enhance some lee
cyclogenesis in Wyoming. As the surface low tracks east and gains
strength, there could be enough focus to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms, partly depending on the moisture return across the
Plains. Some question may remain on the convective mode, as there is
some potential for upscale growth into a linear system. The question
remains whether or not storms will have a chance to remain discrete
beforehand.

Beyond Saturday, the slowly moving trough begins to make its exit
from the region, with northwest flow aloft on Sunday and a ridge
attempting to build in on Monday. Timing remains in question on when
the ridge begins to settle across the region. GEFS spaghetti plots
are generally in agreement on the ridging building in, but the most
disagreement occurs over Kansas and Nebraska. Part of this may be
influenced the expected landfall of Beryl and the models attempting
to handle the height falls. However, other tracks in the spaghetti
plots are further to the east, in an attempt to speed the trough
through. Cluster analysis also hints to this variance in 500 mb
heights, suggesting some question to the timing of the ridge
settling in.

Regardless, the weather pattern is expected to quiet down as ridging
builds in. Daily high temperatures will typically remain below
seasonal averages through the early week as the ridging settles in.
By mid week, temperatures trend more towards average as the ridge
settles in. Precipitation chances will also remain limited beyond
Monday, with a slight chance of showers at most during the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected across the region through today.
Developing cumulus clouds with a few isolated showers and
general thunderstorms may approach VTN/GRN this afternoon, but
confidence in direct impacts bringing degraded flight rules is
low at this time. Expect clouds to diminish with loss of daytime
heating this evening leaving the latter half of the forecast
period predominantly clear with light westerly winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ